Flood in Indiana, December 18 to 31, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
146 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2001

CURRENT PACKAGE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS HERE
AND THERE...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

LATEST SATELLITE PIX SHOWED THE LAST OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE CWA. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT A
SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. AVN MODEL TRIES TO CRANK OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT SINCE THE ETA/NGM KEEP IT DRY...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. AFTER THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. ON SATURDAY THE
FIRST SHOT OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL EJECT FROM A STRONG SYSTEM
FORECAST TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY THIS HUGE
SYSTEM LIFTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH THE
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL MUCH COLDER AIR IN
BEHIND IT...SO WRAP-AROUND PRECIP ON MONDAY COULD END AS SNOW OR A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WILL WAIT AND LOOK AT NEW EXTENDED
GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION.

SO FAR TONIGHT DENSE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET HOSED EVERYWHERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
MIXED. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND WINDS
SUBSIDE...WE COULD VERY WELL DECOUPLE AND GO DOWN FOR THE COUNT.
WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AND WORD THE 1ST PERIOD ZONES
ACCORDINGLY.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT