Hail and Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 5, 2001

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
150 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2001

SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES WHILE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS AND REMAINS
OFFSHORE BY 48 HOURS. MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY AND THUS
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE WET WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER AN INCH. MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. MID
LEVEL DRYING WAS ALSO OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SUGGESTS
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. SOME STORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
STORMS ALONG SO FLASH FLOOD WILL BE LOCALIZED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FROM JET DYNAMICS AND ECHO TRAINING COULD PRODUCE MORE OF A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BECOME REALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHERN
NEVADA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ALSO...THE AVN SHOWS
ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN FLOW AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS AND NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE NGM PLACES BEST CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER EAST
CENTRAL WHILE THE AVN/ETA ARE FURTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS EVENING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN BACKED OFF ANY DRYING
TRENDS WITH SPLIT EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH.
A GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST
CONTINUING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOHMANN

.EKO...NONE.