Hail in Kansas, July 5, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2001

...TSTM CHC OVERNIGHT AND THEN RETURN OF HEAT INTO THE WEEKEND THE
QUESTION THIS FORECAST CYCLE...

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS YESTERDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD DROPPED INTO
SW TO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND HAD SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SO
FAR TODAY. ACTUALLY LITTLE TEMP OR DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE ON EITHER
SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND IT SHOWS UP MAINLY AS A WIND SHIFT LINE.
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE NEB BUT HERE AGAIN IT
SHOWS UP MAINLY AS WIND SHIFT LINE. AS OF 1 PM TEMPS HAD TOPPED THE
90 DEGREE MARK IN THE KS CWA AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN NEB CWA WITH
DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE 60 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED BETTER MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA BUT MODELS MOVE THAT
BACK IN DURING THE DAY. 500 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SRN UTAH. HARD
TO FIND SHORTWAVE THAT MODELS PICK UP ON IN THE U/A CHART BUT CAN SEE
IT ON THE SATELLITE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE IN SRN IDAHO.

THIS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT US LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING OVER AREA. BETTER CHC LOOKS TO BE
IN WEST AND SOUTH PARTS OF CWA.  850 THETAE RIDGE OVER WEST CWA BTWN
03 AND 06Z AND THEN WORKS EAST OVERNIGHT. IF WE GET ANY SEVERE IT
WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND. CAPE AND STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FCST VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE IN WESTERN PART OF CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT LCL AND LFC HEIGHTS LOOK TOO HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO OUTBREAK. FCST SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME TYPE OF INVERTED V
SIGNATURE SO HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE UPPER FORCING NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...A LITTLE UPPER DIVERENCE WITH JET PASSING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO SURFACE BOUNDARIES NOT THAT WELL DEFINED AND
RESPECTABLE CIN OVER AREA SO THINK MOST OF OUR ACTION WILL WAIT TO
FIRE WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS WAVE APPROCHING NW US AND
CANADA WILL GIVE RIDGE THE NEEDED NUDGE.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL HINGE
ON SPEED AND TRACK OF MCS WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP STILL AROUND
IN THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM THURS NIGHT FCST AS RIDGING WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMUP
IN MID LEVELS. ETA FCST 700 TEMPS RUN FROM 16 TO 12C WEST TO EAST
WHILE AVN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. MODELS DO SET UP A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET THURS NIGHT AND WITH 700 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER IN EAST...
MIGHT KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING THERE.

ON FRIDAY WE HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN AREA BUT WITH 700 TEMPS
FCST TO BE ABOVE 15C...SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY. THAT CONTINUES SAT AND
SUN WITH SOME BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE INTO EARLY PART OF WORK WEEK.

.GID...NONE.

EWALD

NEZ039-046-047-060>062-050300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
902 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #510 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
BUFFALO...DAWSON...VALLEY...HOWARD...HALL AND SHERMAN COUNTIES...
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE bFREE FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

KISNER