Hail in Nebraska, May 16, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

...TIMING/PLACING TSRA CHCS BIG CHALLENGE AS ACTIVE PAC FLOW CONTS...

UAA THIS AM 100-125KT H3 JET FROM ID TO MN. WE COME UNDER RRQ OF THIS
JET TNGT-THU. IN THE H5-H7 LAYER...WARM DOME CURRENTLY POISED OVER &
S OF CWA. HWVR...COOLER TEMPS ADVTG IN FROM NRN CO & WY. MEANWHILE...
H85 FRONT STALLED NEAR NEB/KS BORDER W/ 8-10 DEG DWPTS POOLED ON IT.

AT THE SFC...EARLY AFTN CHART HAD STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR NEB/KS BORDER
W/ 70 DWPTS POOLING ALONG & S OF IT. INTERESTING FEATURE...BASICALLY
A COOL FRONT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES HAS PUSHED INTO
S CO & NW KS...W/ NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THIS INTO WRN/NRN CWA. APPEARS
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TSRAS. CAP WL BREAK TODAY.
IN FACT IT ALREADY HAS IN WRN KS. TSRAS SHOULD FIRE IN THIS AREA IN
A FEW HRS & PROBABLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SE INTO
OTHER WASHED OUT FRONT & RICHER DWPTS FROM NEB/KS BORDER SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WY/WRN ND W/ THE USUAL
PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM WRN SD INTO THE NEB PNDHL. THESE FEATURES MAY
STILL FOCUS SOME TSRAS...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WL REMAIN LARGELY
CUTOFF...ONCE TSRAS FIRE ON SRN BOUNDARIES. WL HIT SRN AREAS HARDEST
W/ ONLY A 20/30% IN THE NORTH.

INTO THU...COLD AIR CONTS TO SLIP INTO CWA BEHIND FRONT...WHICH WILL
CLEAR KS BY 00Z. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN US
INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS SUPPORTS MDLS IDEA OF POSTFRONTAL PCPN TO AT
LEAST SRN PARTS OF CWA...AS ENERGY OVERRIDES COOL LLVL AIR. AGAIN...
WL WORD SRN ZONES W/ BETTER CHCS. WE ALSO LOSE ANOTHER 10 DEGS OFF MX
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT.

PAST THAT...MDLS CONT TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE W/ STRENGTH/TIMING OF
VARIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST DRY WX THRU FRI...W/ A RETURN
OF TSRA CHCS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUN
AS STRONG COLD FRONT...PROBABLY THE LAST IN THE SERIES...DIVES THRU
THE PLAINS. WL BASICALLY LEAVE EXTENDED ALONG...XCPT TWEAKING MON A
BIT LOWER & TREND TEMPS WARMER TUE INTO WED .

.GID...NONE.

GURNEY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-170000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM NEAR COLUMBUS SOUTHWEST TO HASTINGS
AND HILL CITY...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 3 OR 4 PM. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG
A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. IN FACT...BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...THESE TWO FRONTS WILL INTERACT...AND THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
BORDER. THUS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST FROM SOUTH OF HASTINGS AND YORK...SOUTH INTO NORTH (CENTRAL
KANSAS.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THESE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

GURNEY