Flash Flooding and Hail in Mississippi, June 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

A FORECAST SUCH AS THIS ONE MAKES ONE TRULY APPRECIATE THE
COMPLEXITY OF THIS SCIENCE. AT FIRST GLANCE...MOST OF THE MODELS
/NOGAPS EXCEPTED/ LOOK VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER...WHEN THE ANALYSIS
SCALE DROPS FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE TO MESOSCALE...NO TWO LOOK ALIKE.
ALSO HAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR THE KY/IL/MO TRIPLE POINT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LOW IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROBLEMS RELATE TO VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW. NO TWO MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
TIMING...STRENGTH...OR EVEN EXISTENCE OF THE INDIVIDUAL LOBES.
COMPARISON OF 06Z MODEL FORECASTS WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP IS OF LITTLE
HELP.

MODELS AT LEAST AGREE THAT CURRENT 500 MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS THEY
ARE GOING TO GET...BUT THATS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL WARMING
ALSO LEND TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE MENTIONED ABOVE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER IN THE NORTHERN CWFA NEARER THE UPPER
COLD POOL. WILL ALSO NEED TO ELIMINATE TIME QUALIFIERS IN THE ZONES
AS ANY INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBE COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHOUT
ANY ASSISTANCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH POINT FORECASTS REMAINING HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON EXISTENCE/ABSENCE/TIMING OF PRECIP.

IN THE EXTENDED...EVENTUAL TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH TIME. WHETHER THE UPPER LOW IS IN THE PICTURE OR NOT
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WONT CHANGE MUCH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SERVE AS A TRIGGER IF THE UPPER LOW IS GONE.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 89/68 89/67 424
MEI 89/67 89/66 424

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
06

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING, STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING ISOLATED IN NATURE,
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL, AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY. LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COOLING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.