Damaging Wind in Florida, June 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2001

SYNOPSIS: THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PROPAGATING WEST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. SOME OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE BAHAMAS,
WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY LOW NEAR MEMPHIS.

DISCUSSION: THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FORECAST THE 1000-700 MEAN FLOW TO
REMAIN EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, THE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST. BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS
MAY, AT TIMES, ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN THE AFTERNOONS AS SEA BREEZE
FRONTS INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY.
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS, WHICH ARE QUITE SIMILAR AND
REASONABLE FOR THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY): THE LATEST MRF AND ECMWF FORECAST THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
SLOWLY RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MRF MOS IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY, AND
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TLH 71 91 72 89 3435
PFN 73 88 73 86 3435
DHN 72 89 72 87 3435
ABY 71 90 71 87 3435
VLD 70 90 71 89 3435

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

FOURNIER