Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, August 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
435 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2001

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM
FOCUS. SQUALL-LINE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ACROSS ERN
UPR/NRN LWR MI...WITH SVR TSTM WATCHES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH 3000-3500 J/KG STILL PRESENT EARLY THIS
EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH
700/500 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40KTS (COINCIDING WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION). PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
(THUS) DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ETA/AVN AGAIN REMAIN IN GOOD
ACCORD WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT (EVEN IN ERN COUNTIES...WHERE
THE RAIN/FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LAST)...AS THE DEGREE OF COLD
ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS (THROUGH 800 MB) MAINTAINS A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
SURFACE LAYER.

FORECAST FOR FRI/SAT BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH DRY WEATHER/
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MRF CONTINUES TO TREND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY...WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN (WEAKER TROUGH)
ACROSS MI SOUTH OF THE LOW. ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
PROJECTIONS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...ALBEIT THE PROSPECTS AT THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER SLIM
(BOTH AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE LOW) GIVEN THE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE/SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL AGAIN ESTABLISH BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON AND TUE (THOUGH
WITH TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS WITH PRIOR PROJECTIONS WITH THE UPPER LOW/
COLD CORE NOW DEPICTED FARTHER NORTH). RETURN S/SW FLOW BEHIND THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER CONDITIONS ON WED...WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CHANCE OF RAIN) SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
THU/FRI PER THE MRF.

.APX...NONE.

HURLEY

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-100400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

* THREAT AREA...ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OF
  MACKINAC.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND
  GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
  DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
  LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* TIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...2 PM TO 6 PM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN...4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

EME

MIZ008-015>029-031>034-100100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     OSCODA...OTSEGO...LEELANAU...EMMET...ROSCOMMON...WEXFORD...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...CRAWFORD...MONTMORENCY...PRESQUE ISLE...MISSAUKEE...
     KALKASKA...ANTRIM...MANISTEE...ALPENA...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
     AND BENZIE

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST
60 MPH ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH
AREA...YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MIZ030-035-036-041-042-100300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     GLADWIN...OGEMAW...IOSCO...ALCONA AND ARENAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST
60 MPH ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH
AREA...YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.