Winter Storm in Maine, February 9 to 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1119 AM EST FRI FEB 9 2001

.UPDATED...
REFRESHED WORDING IN FIRST PERIOD TO REMOVE MENTION OF DEVELOPING AS MOST
AREAS HAVE STARTED PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...THEN ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TRAILING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILL STAY THE COURSE W/WATCHES-ADVS-WRNGS IN PLACE. PREFER THE AVN-GEM
AS FAR AS PLACEMENT/STRENGTH BASED ON SATL TRENDS & VERIFICATION. MM5
EVEN LOOKED RSNBL BASED ON 00Z CAR RAOB & UA PLOTS. COORD W/GYX. THANX JFR.

ARCTIC-POLAR AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ERODING. CI SHIELD MOVG OVER THE CWFA ATTM. CIGS LOWER QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF
WAA ALF. SN/IP/FZRA BREAKING OUT OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVS ATTM WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MRNG. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY DROP A FEW DEGS
INITIALLY BEFORE WARMING BK UP. COLUMN FCST TO WARM UP QUICKLY PER SHORT RNG
GUID...BUT W/COLD AIR IN PLACE & DEEP SN CVR...MIX OR CHGOVER TO IP/FZRA
WILL BE SLOWED SOME ESP UP N. PRVS PKG HAS THIS & WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ACCUMS
OF SN BEFORE CHGOVER WILL BE 2-4 NRN SXNS DOWN TO 1-3 HUL-MLT TO ARND AN OR
SO DOWNEAST ESP THE CST.

BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW FAST WILL COLUMN WARM TO ALLOW FRZG PCPN TO GO LIQ.
INTENSE SFC LOW MOVG UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RVR VLY. STG LLVL JET SETTING UP
(50+ KTS) SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL WM FNT NWD. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN WM
FNTS TO GET HUNG W/DEEP SN CVR IN PLACE & STG WINDS STAY ELEVATED FOR A
TIME. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FRZG PCPN TO HANG IN LONGER ESP IN VLYS & FAR NRN
ME. ONLY HINDRANCE TO THIS IS THAT WE ARE LACKING SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
DAMMING. HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC REMAINS @ BAY WHILE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
MID-ATL IS REAL PLAYER. WE HAVEN/T HAD VERY COLD TEMPS FOR LAST 3-4
DAYS. HAVE SEEN WARM AIR GET PULLED AS FAR N AS CAR IN FEB EVEN W/DEEP SN
CVR. ATTM...WILL CONT W/PSBL ICING FOR ZNS1-2. ST. JOHN VLY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN W/WARMER AIR. CAR-PQI COULD GO ABV 33-36F
FOR JUST RA NR OR AFT 12Z SAT. FURTHER S...FM HUL-BGR-EPO AREAS...SHOULD SEE
WARMING TO ALLOW FOR CHGOVER TO LIQ BY AFT 06Z OR SO. STG WINDS ON SAT
W/GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE WILL LEAD TO SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. HIGH WIND
WATCH IN PLACE FOR DOWNEAST ME. THIS WATCH COULD GET EXTENDED FURTHER N
FOR SAT. WILL DISC THIS BEFORE DECIDING. AS LOW PULLS THRU ST. LAWRENCE
RVR VLY W/CD FNT THRU THE CWFA. BURST OF SN AS CAA RUSHES INTO THE. NR
BLIZZARD CONDS ON SAT W/VERY STG WINDS.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE PARAMS SUGGEST SOME TSRAS LATE
TNGT-EARLY SAT ESP DOWNEAST/CSTL. LTG DATA HAD STIKES OVER OH VLY IN THE WM
SECTOR. WILL CONT W/THAT MNTN IN THE FCST. AFT COORD W/GYX...BELIEVE SN
CVR WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB QPF (.75-1) TO KP RVRS/ICE JAMS IN PLACE.
ALSO...WARMUP NOT PROLONGED LIKE THE EVENT WE HAD BK IN DEC.

EXTENDED...
HAVE SAID ENUF ALREADY & DAYSHIFT HAS EXTENDED WELL IN HAND. VERY COLD AIR
COMING OUR SAT NGT-SUN. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 4-5TH PDS & THAT/S IT.

COASTAL WATERS: PER MARINE MIGNONE/GYX...WILL HOIST GLW. STG WINDS STAY
ELEVATED FOR A WHILE W/STABLE MARINE LYR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS WAA GETS
PULLED TO THE SFC...STG WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN BY 09Z SAT. CSTL
FLDG NOT A REAL CONCERN DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION DESPITE ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONT W/MNTN OF MINOR CSTL FLDG @ HIGH TIDE TNGT. OFFSHORE
WINDS ON SAT SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY CONCERNS FOR CSTL FLDG.

.CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING ZNS 1>6 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZNS 10/11 TODAY.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZNS 15>17/29/30 TODAY.
       HIGH WIND WATCH ZNS 15>17/29/30 SATURDAY.

JOE