Winter Storm in Maine, February 25 to 26, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1108 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2001

.UPDATED...
FRESHENING UP PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO REMOVE REFLECTION OF AN EARLY PERIOD.
MINOR CHANCES TO PRECIPITATION.  WILL LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL
ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS EAST. EXPECT THAT
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLEET.  WILL ADD POSSIBILITY TO
NORTHERN ZONES.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND THEN TRACK INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY MONDAY AND THEN TRACK INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
06Z SFC CHART INDICATES 1036MB HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WITH 989MB LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY REACHED
SOUTHERN NH WHICH APPEARS TO BE VIRGA...BUT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZED WELL THIS EVENING COMPARING 00Z ANALYSIS WITH
SAT IMG. COMPARING MODELS WITH THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z DAY RUN...AVN FASTER
AND WEAKER WITH MONDAYS VORTMAX AND TRIPLE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE
ETA SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SAME FEATURES. COMPARING MODELS TO
EACH OTHER...ALL THREE VERY CONSISTENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF MIDWEST
LOW MOVING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY 30 HR. AFTER THAT ETA TAKES MORE NORTHERN
TRACK AND AVN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH NGM IN THE MIDDLE. WITH TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 36 HR...AVN A LITTLE DEEPER...
SLOWER AND JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST COMPARED TO ETA POSITION AND STRENGTH.
H5 ETA ALSO DEEPER WITH H5 TROUGH...HOWEVER AVN AND ETA VORT MAX VERY CLOSE
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION AT 42 HRS IN EASTERN MAINE. WITH ALL THAT
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS EXCEPT ETA WETTER WITH WAA
PRECIP TODAY AND AVN WETTER WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW ON MONDAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF BOTH ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS.

SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD AND
THICKEN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG WAA WILL START THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL START AROUND NOON IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON.
MIDWEST SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TONIGHT AS
IT RUNS INTO STRONG UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE EVENING HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE TONIGHT FEEL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO A END. SOUNDING
INDICATES DRY AIR IN UPPER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE JUST LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER DOWNEAST
SECTIONS WITH DENSE FOG.

TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY 18Z AS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE STATE BY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED DOWNEAST
ZONES DURING THE MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND LOW WILL PRODUCE
CLEARING SKIES AS DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTION BUT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS QPFS QUITE LOW.

EXTENDED...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE PC CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
CREATING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHER SECTION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PROVIDE PC CONDITIONS FOR DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

COASTAL WATERS...WILL HEADLINE GALE AS WINDS INCREASE TO GALE TONIGHT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.CAR...SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES 1>4.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES 10-11,
       15-17.

NORTON/DUDA