Damaging Wind in Maine, August 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2001

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATER THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DOWNEAST AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF RIDGING AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY.
ALOFT...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT...ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL CLIP MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER VORT MAX AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY.

KCBW 88D INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DOWNEAST COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNEAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AFTER THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS END. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DOWNEAST...PARTICULARLY AT
LOCALES WHICH RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO 55 TO 60 DOWNEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE MINIMAL POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MINIMAL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
850-500 MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX CROSSING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.

COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.CAR...NONE.

NORCROSS