Damaging Wind in Louisiana, March 28, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 PM CST WED MAR 28 2001

AT THE PRESENT...SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH WARM FRONT STILL ON THE EDGE OF THE MARINE ZONES ABOUT 60
MILES OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH YET ANOTHER
ONE BACK OVER THE ROCKIES.

KLCH RADAR INDICATING MOST OF THE RAIN IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...SOME STRONG CELLS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AN OIL RIG ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH
OF MARSH ISLAND (K7R8) REPORT 65 KT WINDS WITH A STORM AT 18Z.
RADARS BACK IN TEXAS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA.

FORECAST PERIOD...
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE THIS TRACK AND BE NEAR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STILL HAVE
GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RIDE OVER THE COOL
SURFACE AIR...ALONG WITH WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO WILL
HAVE HIGH POPS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP POPS IN TO COVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL LOWER POPS FROM FORECAST.

EXTENDED...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10.

.LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ450-455-470-475.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
AEX 50/62/52/68/53 86200
BPT 58/68/55/70/55 85200
LCH 58/68/55/70/56 85200
LFT 57/70/56/72/57 97300

7-RUA

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-290400-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
250 PM CST WED MAR 28 2001

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND SMALL STREAMS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

WITH GROUNDS ALREADY WET FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...AND OF SMALL STREAMS AND
BAYOUS.

THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

RUA