Tornado in Louisiana, December 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2001

FIRST OF A SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD AIR CHUNKS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
THROUGH THE DFW AREA. MERGING SHORT WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE UPPER LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...THUS OPENING THE COLD AIR GATEWAY. SLOWER
ETA MODEL SHOWING MORE RELIABILITY...SO EXPECT FRONT TO TAKE MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTH LA. CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE
ALONG LEADING TROF...ONLY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
IN EAST TX LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
JET STREAM DIGS INTO AREA...AND CYLCONIC CURVATURE...TRANSVERSES
FROM SE TX EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL LA INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY
POCKET INDICATED ON LAPS ANAYSIS EAST OF CLL. THIS MAY ALLOW
REGENERATION OF CONVECTION INTO EAST TX LAKES...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN
UNUSUAL WITH COLD FRONTS...ESPECIALLY LATELY.

LOOKING AT EXTENDED...COOL AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW AS UPPER TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. COLDER SHOTS OF AIR LOOKING TO ARRIVE AROUND CHRISTMAS...THEN
AGAIN TOWARDS BEGINNING OF FOLLOWING WEEKEND. NO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL FORESEEN. OTHER PRECIPITATION NOT OBVIOUS
ENOUGH TO PUT IN FORECAST YET.

SHV 40/55/27/54  3000
MLU 43/58/31/54  6000
TXK 39/52/28/52  2000
TYR 38/53/28/55  1000
LFK 42/58/26/56  2000

VII

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221750-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2001

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. WITH INSTABILITY GREATER TO THE SOUTH...LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES...AND COULD MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...ACTIVATION OF
SKYWARN NETWORKS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MONITORED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.