Damaging Wind in Kentucky, June 15, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS
IT COMES EAST. CLOSER TO HOME...OUT AHEAD OF THIS A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SWINGING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT...THE PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE WESTERLIES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK. MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DESPITE OUR AMPLE FUEL...WITH HIGH
HUMIDITIES AND HEAT...AS IT WILL BE TOO WARM ALOFT. THIS WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE RIPPLES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SENDING THE RIDGE BACK SOUTH.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
STORMS EAST INTO OUR GOOD INSTABILITY WITH LIS TO -5 AND CAPES OF
1500 TO 2000 J/KG. PWS ARE ALSO HIGH...IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
MAKING HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET FROM ANY STORM. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OF THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SO EXPECT BASIN AVERAGES TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE
FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON NORTHWEST
WINDS AS THE SKY BECOMES SUNNY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...A HILL TO VALLEY SPLIT
IS POSSIBLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AT THIS POINT WILL
JUST PUT IT DOWN AS A 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. AFTER A QUIET AND DRY
SUNDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
WE WILL BE RIGHT UNDER A THAT RIDGE KEEPING US DRY UNTIL THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK WHEN THE PATTERN BUCKLES.

MOS TEMPERATURES SEEM TOO WARM THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE THEY LOOK
GOOD AT NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS ARE THE OPPOSITE...GOOD DURING THE DAYS
BUT TOO WARM AT NIGHT. WILL PICK THE BEST OF THE BUNCH.

WORK ZONES ARE OUT UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL.

JKL...NONE.

GREIF