Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 15, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EXIBITED A NW DRIFT TODAY AND
AT 1845Z WAS SPINNING NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN
NRN BERTIE COUNTY. SIGNIFICANT RAINS CONTINUE IN THE W-S QUADS OF
THIS SYSTEM IMPLYING MORE DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
MHX ZONES LATE AFTN INTO TNGT. 88D STILL IN TROPICAL MODE WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN ABOUT 10 PCNT OVER ESTIMATION IN THIS MODE NOT BAD.
AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY WEST TO MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES HAVE
RECEIVED LOCALIZED AMTS ABOVE 6 INCHES. WITH 2 TO 4 INCH ADDITIONAL
AMTS PSBL TNGT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WILL KEEP WATCH POSTED. AS
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE W THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN A NWD DRIFT
THEN REALLY GET GOING INTO SATURDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AS FRNT NEARS SO LIKELY POPS SAT BECMG SCT SAT NIGHT DRYING
ON SUNDAY BEHIND FROPA. PATTERN TAKES ON SUMMER REGIME INTO XTND WITH
CHC AFTN TSRA WED THRU FRIDAY.

CWF...AVN HAS A GD HANDLE ON THE TRACK THE LOW. RITE NOW IT IS
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ALBEMARLE SND. IT SHLD CONTINUE
TO MOV TWD THE N DURING TNT. THIS PUTS MHX CSTL WTRS IN A SW FLOW.
SPDS/SEAS STILL NR SCA CRIT THIS EVE AND WILL PERSIST WITH ADVYS FOR
THE TNT PERIOD. SPDS NOT AS STRNG ON SAT WITH SW WNDS AVERAGING ARND
15 KT MOST AREAS WITH SLOLY SUBSIDING SEAS. A FNT WILL MOV THRU THE
REG EARLY SUNDAY WITH A WND SHFT TO THE N/NE. SEAS OFFSHR COULD
STILL BE RATHER BUMPY ON SUNDAY AS N/NE FLOW BUCKS UP AGAINST A
RESIDUAL SW SWELL AND A 1.8 KT NWD RUNNING CURRENT IN THE GULF STRM.

.MHX...FFA ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS
    ...SCA CSTL WTRS.

PUBLIC...COLBY
MARINE...GATES

NCZ095-098-103-104-152100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES FOR CRYSTAL COAST...
...INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE OUTER BANKS...

THE LOW PRESSURE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALLISON...WILL RESULT IN
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OUTER BANKS TODAY.
THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF THE CRYSTAL COAST WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND THE OUTER BANKS BEACHES WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
TO THE SOUTH.

OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST...WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL AVERAGE 5 FEET
TODAY BRINGING A DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT.

ON THE OUTER BANKS...WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
AROUND 4 FEET. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT TO
THE REGION.

AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS AND WAVES...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. THE TIME MOST
VULNERABLE FOR RIP CURRENTS TO OCCUR WILL BE AROUND LOW TIDE...WHICH
OCCURS NEAR 900 AM THIS MORNING AND 930 PM TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RIP CURRENTS...CHECK WITH
THE LOCAL BEACH PATROLS...LIFEGUARDS OR OTHER BEACH AUTHORITY.

RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG NARROW CHANNELS OF WATER THAT FLOW OUT TO
SEAS. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...REMAIN CALM. TRY
SWIMMING ON A COURSE THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH...UNTIL YOU GET
AWAY FROM THE RIP...THEN SWIM IN TO SHORE.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE RIP...SINCE IT CAN EXHAUST OR
EVEN KILL THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

CG