Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 15, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

CELLULAR CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING. STRONG STORMS
ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST WHILE DEVELOPING FURTHER. BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL ONLY
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER STORMS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXISTING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

TONIGHT/WEEKEND...MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF AREA SHIFTS WEST AS
SHORTWAVE ROUGH OVER TN VALLEY MOVES SOUTH TWD PENINSULA. APPROACH
OF TROUGH WILL KEEP STEERING WINDS FAVORABLE WLY DIRECTION WITH
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVER AREA FAVORING SCATTERED DIURNAL
STORMS. SEA BREEZE FORMATION APPEARS LIMITED OVER NORTH COAST ON SAT
AS WLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
ONCE AGAIN...ALTHO H5 TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING N STATE ALTHOUGH
AM NOT CERTAIN OF SFC DEVELOPMENT DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL PENINSULA
SUNDAY. RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...SO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

EXTENDED...AVN AND MRF KEEPS AN OLD FRONTAL WAVE OVER PENINSULA WITH
UNCERTAIN DEPICTION OF A POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WAVE
WEST OF STATE. IN ANY CASE WILL HOLD ONTO SOME POPS IN THE FORM OF
DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH EXTENDED FCST.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEEKEND. APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS. ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS ON SAT.

TKS FOR COORD MIA & SPC

PRELIM...
DAB TB 072/093 071/089 071 3423
MCO TT 072/093 072/091 071 3424
MLB TT 073/091 073/090 072 3535 44

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
152100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERIOR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOVE TOWARD THE EAST FLORIDA COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE SIZE OF COINS. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
COULD FORM AS STORMS AND THEIR NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INTERACT.

ALL STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE
RAINFALL.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STEER DEVELOPED
STORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BOATERS AND BEACH VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PLAN TO TAKE SHELTER BEFORE
THE STORMS ARE OVERHEAD. WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF
ACTIVATE IF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. REPORT WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...OR
WIND DAMAGE TO THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

PENDERGRAST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...FROM THURSDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

250 PM     ASTOR                     FL   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   LAKE                           TREES DOWN ACROSS ROUTE
                                          314A 2 MILES NORTH OF
                                          HIGHWAY 40. TREES ALSO
                                          DOWN ON CARS. REPORT FROM
                                          USFS ALTOONA OFFICE.

315 PM     8W KISSIMMEE              FL   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   OSCEOLA                        DIME SIZE HAIL. WINDS
                                          TORE THE AWNINGS OF OF
                                          SOME RV'S. REPORT FROM
                                          SECRET LAKE RV RESORT.

CRISTALDIs