Flash Flood in Kentucky, July 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2001

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT HUNG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY WITH
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 70 PLUS DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ON
SATELLITE...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE JKL 88D RADAR SHOWS THE LATEST CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL...MORE SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND TO
THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE MASSIVE AREA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT
WITH MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS WHERE REPORTED
IN FLOYD...ESTILL AND POWELL COUNTIES. ADDITION...NUISANCE FLOODING
WERE REPORTED IN MANY OTHER COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN FROM THE
CURRENT NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE AS A
MONSTER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IN TURN WILL AMPLIFY AN
EASTERN TROUGH. AS THIS CHANGE TAKES PLACE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE STRONGEST ONES EXPECTED
AROUND 12Z AND AGAIN AT 18Z. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE REMAINS VERY WET
WITH PWS OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH 18Z. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN OUR THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE
RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD AND THE PROBLEMS THIS CAUSED WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING. THEN A PROLONGED DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARM SPELL TAKES HOLD AS RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK TO RETURN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST.

MOS TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL. THANWKS FOR THE
COORDINATION CALL LMK.

.JKL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ALL OF FORECAST AREA.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
1200 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 AM    MONTICELLO                KY   FLASH FLOODS
07/29/01   WAYNE                          WATER FLOWING OVER
                                          NUMEROUS STREETS IN
                                          MONTICELLO. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1102 PM    LONDON                    KY   FLASH FLOODS
07/29/01   LAUREL                         NUMEROUS HOUSES, ALONG
                                          WITH NURSING HOME FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.