Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2001

SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWFA...HAVING FIRED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AN AREA OF
DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NERN WI. WEAK SFC
LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LIFTING MECHANISM...THEREFORE THE ACTIVITY IS
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POP (20 PERCENT)
ACROSS SRN INTERIOR COUNTIES AS WELL FOR THE EVENING.

AFTER THIS EVENING...REMAINDER OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF
HUMIDITY. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL TRAP SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG NRN INTERIOR COUNTIES IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100 DEG F BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY LIMITED LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE...CONFINED TO NWRN LAKE
SHORE COUNTIES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD FIRE ALONG THIS
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE MON OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT LACK OF
GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ONLY VERY
WEAK LIFT. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

GREENE

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ALL THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IS STILL PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THIS TIME... THEN GO NORTHWEST AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. MAIN
CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE BUFFERED BY A CHANCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
SHOULD THE TIMING CURRENTLY IN THE MODELS BE OFF A BIT.

MEADE

.GRR...NONE.