Flood in Kentucky, December 1 to 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE SHORT TERM AND THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
WITH THE CLEARING JUST BEGINNING IN WESTERN ZONES.  SHOULD SEE THE
CLEARING CONTINUE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS BEING MOSTLY CLEAR AT OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS TREND ON SATELLITE BEFORE ZONES ARE ISSUED TO
DETERMINE BEST WORDING.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CLOUDS HUNG
AROUND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLEARING DOES
NOT OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET.  WHERE SKIES CLEAR...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE A CONCERN...BUT A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP FOG IN CHECK.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG.  THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY...WITH ALL OF THE WATER LYING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW EVENING.  IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT PERSIST TOMORROW...
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  AS SKIES CLEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION.  A GOOD RADIATION COOLING
ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR THAT PERIOD.

WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR CONTINUED WARMING TREND
INTO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 60 TO 65 RANGE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GULF
OPENS UP AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY...AS ADVERTISED BY THE MRF.  THE 12Z AVN HAS
DIVERGED FROM THE 00Z MRF...BUT STILL LOOKS DISTURBED WITH CONTINUED
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS SCENARIO LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST...SO WILL NOT DIVERGE FROM IT.

.PAH...NONE.

DRS