High Wind in Oregon, December 1, 2001

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2001

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VERY STRONG COASTAL WIND TO THE
AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MORE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...WE ARE INTO THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG LOW...ANALYZED IN THE 90S JUST SOUTHEAST OF BUOY
36. MODELS TAKE LOW CENTER TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. MESO ETA SHOWS
LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 80 KTS IN THE 950-925 MB LEVEL...WITH MID
50 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AM UPGRADING TO STORM WARNING ENTIRE
COAST...AND WILL RAISE GUSTS ON COASTAL HEADLANDS TO 80 MPH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG POST FRONTAL GRADIENT
FROM WRAP AROUND AREA AROUND LOW CENTER COMES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
FOR MORE WIND. WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING. ALSO HAVE A HEAVY SURF
ADVISORY UP FOR SEAS THAT BUILD ABOVE 20 FEET SATURDAY DUE TO THE
WIND.

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN POUNDING THE NORTH OREGON COAST...AND REVISED QPF
AND OBSERVED PRECIPITATION SHOW POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ON SEVERAL RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE...SEE FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN ON THE COAST IS INCREASING INLAND IN THE
NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE STRONG OROGRAPHIC POST FRONTAL
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVEL MAY BRIEFLY GET UP TO
AROUND 4500 FEET TONIGHT RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...WILL EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND UPGRADE THE SNOW ADVISORY IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...A LOT OF THE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH
TOWARD CALIFORNIA. STILL...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST
OREGON. CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN UP NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL OF PULLING COLD
AIR INTO THE COLUMBIA GORGE LATE SUNDAY. WILL INDICATE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW THERE FOR NOW WITH AROUND 2500 FOOT SNOW LEVEL ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MODELS SHOWING
SYSTEMS TAKING A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH PERIODS OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVELS.
TOLLESON

AST ++9788  PDX ++9788  SLE ++9788  EUG ++9788

.PQR...HIGH WIND WARNING...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST...
        SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
        COAST RANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
       WINTER STORM WARNING...SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL
        OREGON CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
       STORM WARNING...CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR.
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SATURDAY FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
       FLOOD WATCH...RIVERS DRAINING NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
        RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2001

TIME(PST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    LONG BEACH                WA   NON-TSTM WIND
11/30/01   PACIFIC                        SPOTTER PACIFIC 17
                                          SUSTAINED WIND 55
                                          TO 60 MPH.