Heat in New Jersey, December 1 to 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2001

WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...MORE NEAR OR RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR TAFTN. E CST RDG GETS FLATTENED IN THE NR
TERM AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
E CST RDG REESTABLISHING ITSELF AS THE WEEK TRANSPIRES. NO SGFCNT WX
WITH ABV NML TEMPS THRU OUR DAY 7 FCST. LATEST MRF STILL HOLDS OFF
NEXT PCPN CHC TIL FRI.

CDFNT OR WHAT/S LEFT OF IT APRS TO BE MOVG THRU WRN PARTS OF OUR CWA
ATTM. ITS MAIN EFFECT TDY WILL BE TO FOSTER DWNSLPG WRLY WINDS. WITH
H8 TEMPS AT 00Z IN THE 6 TO 12C RNG...COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE
ABRRELING TDY AND S/B MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY THE DWNSLPG WRLY
FLOW. THUS UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES WE/LL HAVE THE CHC AT BREAKING MORE
RECORDS. THIS MADE EASIER THAT SOME RECORD HIGHS ARE ABT 5 DEG LWR
THAN YDA/S AND CUR TEMPS ARE STILL AS WARM AS THE MID 60S:

ABE        65 IN 1934
ACY ARPT   65 IN 1998
ACY MARINA 66 IN 1998
GED        77 IN 1991 (LOOKS SAFE)
ILG        68 IN 1933
PHL        68 IN 1908
TTN        66 IN 1962

ALL THE FCST MDLS BRING IN HI LVL MSTR TNGT. EVEN THE ETA IS SHOWING
SGFCNT MSTR AT HI LVLS TO BLV THERE WILL BE A CI CANOPY OVR MOST OF
THE CWA THIS EVE THAT SHLD BCM THICKER OVRNGT AS A SHRT WV APCHS THE
RGN. UNDER NML CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD HAVE LOPPED ABT 5 DEG OFF OF GUID
MINS...BUT WITH FCSTD CLDS FCST CONFID NOT HI AND WE/LL PBLY JUST
LEAN TWD THE COOLER OF THE TWO GUID PKGS. LOWEST MINS IN THE AREA
MAY VERY WELL BE IN THE NJ PINE BARRENS.

GENERAL MDL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRT WV
AND WE/LL BE A BIT MORE PESIM WITH SUN MRNG/S FCST. THIS WOULD SEEM
PRUDENT GIVEN FCSTD PASSAGE OF ENTR RGN OF H2.5 JET ACRS PA/NJ.
MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SNIRGA/WINTRY TYPE SKIES ACRS OUR NRN CWA. FULL
SUN MAXT MACROS ARE MID 50S TO MID 60S. BUT WITH EXPECTED MRNG CLDS
AND SHRT DURATION OF DAYLIGHT...WE WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUID.

IDEAL RDTNL CONDS FCSTD FOR SUN NGT. ATTM NEXT EXPANSE OF CI LOOKS
TOO VIGOROUS AND PREDICATED ON AN ALMOST PERFECT PROG OF H5 SHRT WV.
IF PAST RECENT TRENDS CONT...THIS SHLD PASS FTHR TO OUR N. THUS
WE/LL OPT FOR COOLER AVN FMR GUID FOR MINS. ON THE OTHER HAND WITH
HI PRES IN CONTROL FOR MON...AVN MOS GUID LOOKS TOO LOW AND WE/LL
BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A TAD.

NEW AVN/MRF SEEMS TO VERIFY CUR EXTDD FCST.

MAR: SCA WILL BE CONTD FROM LTL EGG INLET NWD TO SANDY HOOK THIS
MRNG.

CLIMO AND WINTER TRENDS: PNS WIBIS ABT WARM/DRY AUTUMN. CLIMAT FOCAL
POINT WILL BE GOING OVER THESE NUMBERS...SO THEY MIGHT CHANGE A
TENTH OR SO COME MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS ONE OF THE WARMEST/DRIEST NOV
ON RECORD.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
DEC...WITH COLD AIR PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP IN SIBERIA...IT WILL PBLY
TAKE A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE FOR DEC NOT TO BE WRMR THAN NML. OF
COURSE THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION REMAINS WHAT ABT THE WINTER. WE
HAVE GONE BACK IN PHL RECORDS TO FIND PAST COMBINATIONS OF OCTOBERS
AND NOVEMBERS THAT WERE UNSEASONABLY (IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENT) WARM
AND DRY (LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF PCPN FOR EACH MONTH). WE ARRIVED AT
FIVE SUCH EXAMPLES. THERE IS STILL A WEAK LA NINA IN FAR ERN
PACIFIC. CPC FCSTS ARE EXPECTING THIS TO GO LA NADA/WK EL NINO IN
2002. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS.

WINTER    LA/EL ?     DEC      JAN      FEB      SNOWFALL
1918-19   LA NADA     40.9     37.7     37.6     4.5 INCHES
1922-23   LA NADA     36.1     34.4     30.0    19.5 INCHES
1928-29   LA NINA     40.8     34.2     35.2    11.9 INCHES
1973-74   LA NINA     38.6     35.9     31.7    20.8 INCHES
1990-91   EL NINO     42.1     35.2     40.0    16.5 INCHES

APPROX 1971-2000 NMLS 37.2     32.1     34.7    20.0 INCHES

ON TEMPERATURES ALONE THERE WERE 13 OCCURRENCES OF BOTH OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER OF THE SAME YEAR BEING UNSEASONABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 77%
OF THE ENSUING DEC, 85% OF THE ENSUING JAN AND 54% OF THE ENSUING
FEB WERE WARMER (1971-2000 NUMBERS) THAN NML. SNOWFALL RANGED FROM
4.5 TO 33.1 INCHES WITH THE AVG OF 16.5 INCHES.

.PHI...SCA FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ

TFGINO