Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 25, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THE NEXT
60 HOURS.  THINK THE ETA HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE CLUSTERS.

CURRENT MCS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID
MORNING.  EXPECT DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO SETUP AT THE SURFACE IN
ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS YET ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS MCS MAY AFFECT AREAS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND WILL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

AFTER ANOTHER LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.  COULD BE INTO A FLOODING SITUATION BY
THEN AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED FROM REPEAT HEAVY RAINS.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOOKS LIKE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS FINALLY OVER.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA 2
METER TEMPERATURES AS THE NGM/FWC LOOKS TOO WARM AND THE AVN BASED
MAV AND FAN LOOK TOO COOL.

.TOP...NONE.

58