Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 25, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2001

FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS. FYI WILL LET THE HEAT ADVISORY
END AT 7 PM...SO DO NOT LOOK FOR HEADLINES ON THE ZONES.

WILL LEAN TOWARD AN AVN/ETA DEPICTION THIS TIME AROUND.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH AREA PROFILERS SHOWING THE MID/UPPER HIGH CENTER ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A THIRD
UPPER LOW NOW TRAVERSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AT LEAST TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
MAIN DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION MAY TRIGGER EVENING STORMS. THE OTHER SCENARIO OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. THE WAVE NOW
MOVING ACROSS NW KS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD KANSAS CITY BY MIDNIGHT
AND OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE
850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND PRESENCE OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITHIN
THE LAYER OF WHAT WOULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL SHOULD GENERATE
AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS/GREATEST CHCS FOR SE
AND CENTRAL KS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS SUCH THAT AS THE NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION REINFORCES THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL. CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MENTION OF PRECIP...MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING WITH GREATEST CHCS AT NIGHT. THE WAVE NOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT BY FRIDAY AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION NW
OF THE CWA...AND THIS MAY MOVE SE INTO THE AREA. ALL IN ALL THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHCS FOR RAIN IN SOMETIME ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. FIRST GUESS FOR DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK FOR 85 TO 90
CENTRAL AND SE KS...WITH LOWER 90S SOUTH CENTRAL THU-FRI...POSSIBLY
COOLER DEPENDING ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF PRECIP.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN I AM NOT SURE IF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FORCED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION
OF PRECIP AND WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE BUT
COULD BE COOLER SINCE SFC PATTERN REMAINS IN DOUBT.  FOR
SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE FCST TO DEPART WITH UPPER RIDGING TO ONCE AGAIN
BUILD. HOWEVER...AT THE SFC IT APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY
ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
MAX TEMPS BELOW 100.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...MRF/LATEST AVN HAVE BACKED OFF ON EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY AND
BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL AS CURRENTLY FCST.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   74  91  72  91 /  50  40  50  50
HUT   73  91  72  91 /  50  40  50  50
EWK   74  91  72  89 /  50  40  50  50
EQA   74  91  72  89 /  50  40  50  50
WLD   74  93  72  91 /  40  30  50  50
RSL   69  88  69  87 /  60  40  60  50
GBD   70  89  70  88 /  60  40  60  50
SLN   70  90  70  88 /  60  40  60  50
MPR   70  90  70  88 /  60  40  60  50
CFV   71  89  70  87 /  60  50  60  50
CNU   71  89  70  86 /  60  50  60  50
K88   71  89  70  86 /  60  50  60  50

.eICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
LATE THIS MORNING...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING FROM LAST
NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON TO
WICHITA...TO CHERRYVALE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ALSO...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX
DEVELOPS...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...
HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTwED...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

CARUSO