Hail in Kansas, August 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM DDC TO GBD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH AND
LINGER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A PORTION OF
THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SO WE WILL KEEP 40% POPS MOST PLACES EXCEPT 30% NORTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND ALONG THE FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA. FRONT RANGE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR. BUT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
HELP KEEP IT GOING INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. SO WE WILL KEEP 30%
POPS OUT WEST WITH 20% EAST. THE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MODIFY AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY AS DECENT DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO POOL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE
SETUP FOR A COLORADO MCS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL NOT DEPART TOO MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS JUST A TAD WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FEW CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
THE AVN EXTENSION THIS PACKAGE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MRF ENSEMBLES AS OPERATIONAL MRF AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
VARY WIDELY. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO ROCKIES BETWEEN SHORT WAVE
CARVED EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC TROF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY TREK SOUTHEAST AND MAY
IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS. RIDGE SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST AS WESTERLIES
EXPAND OVER THE PACIFIC AND BRING AND END TO THE THUNDER CHANCES BY
MID WEEK. A RETURN TO NEAR 100F TEMPS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS THE RIDGE
COMES OVERHEAD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 063/083 064/086 063 422
GCK 061/083 062/086 063 423
EHA 064/084 063/089 065 423
LBL 066/086 064/089 065 423
HYS 061/084 062/085 065 322
P28 069/085 068/087 068 432

.DDC...NONE.

FINCH/POAGE