Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

...QUESTIONS FOR THIS CYCLE WILL BE RELATED TO WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION OCCURS...

THE 00Z ANALYSIS PACKAGE SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKING INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WORK EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE CONUS NOW APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
THAT IT NOW EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EAST NEW MEXICO INTO
COLORADO AND KANSAS. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED UPPER
COLD POOL CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING
PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS MY NORTHERN ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IDENTIFIES AT LEAST TWO MORE UPPER WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION OUT
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH YET MORE UPSTREAM. WAVE LENGTHS ARE
REASONABLY SHORT WITH THESE FEATURES WITH TIMING EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LESS THAN 12 HOUR RANGE. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE PRESENT FROM THE H8 ANALYSIS, ONGOING CONVECTION MAKES IT
OBVIOUS THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LEE CYCLONE OVER COLORADO
INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SITUATION.
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO APPARENT
THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NEW MEXICO.

MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ALL LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING BUT AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, THEY GO IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER TIME. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AT FAIRLY FREQUENT INTERVALS THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN ALL PERIODS.
CONVECTIVE SCALE FORCING WILL BECOME THE DRIVING FORCE FOR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
EACH OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY THE STORMS PRODUCE IN TURN
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS AND THIS IS
BEYOND THE ABILITY OF THE MODELS TO RESOLVE. AS A RESULT, WILL NOT
GO MUCH ABOVE THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR POPS. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS
IN MY WESTERN MOST ZONES WILL MENTION A RISK OF SOME SEVERE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN COOLED
AIR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL THUS
STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
IT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION
WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE, BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE
CAPABILITIES OF EITHER THE MODELS OR THE MAN TO FORECAST WITH ANY
DEGREE OF ACCURACY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS ALL SIMILAR AND SHOWING A RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH BRINGING A DECENT S/W TROF ACROSS WESTERN KS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A SFC BOUNDARY IN/NEAR OUR CWA SUGGEST
INTRODUCING CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY MAY BE A BIT TRICKY
FOR PCPN AS S/W EXITS THE AREA, BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
PCPN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER WITH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS
ON TRACK SO NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 092/067 082/064 091 254
GCK 091/065 082/063 091 254
EHA 093/065 084/065 092 232
LBL 093/067 084/065 092 232
HYS 090/067 082/066 090 366
P28 094/071 094/071 091 255

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/BURGERT