Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS TEMPS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT PRECIP CHCS GENERALLY LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HOWEVER WILL UP POPS
SOME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE PLUME...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP...REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. MODELS PROG WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS CEN/SCEN SECTIONS. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LOW OVER THE SW
US MOVES INTO THE PICTURE BY THU...MOVING ACROSS NW KS. SFC LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS CEN KS DURING THE DAY THU. LI/S ON THU GO INTO THE -3 TO -6
RANGE. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. WIND FIELDS ARE
WEAK...HOWEVER SFC BOUNDARY OVER NCEN SECTION WILL HELP FOCUS THE
ENERGY. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHCS IN THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED TSRA AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TOMORROW
FOR CEN KS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE 21-22C. SIMILAR READINGS IN STORE FOR SAT.
WHAT THAT TRANSLATES DOWN TO WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP FRI/SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...COOLER NORTH.

EXTENDED FCST...THE MRF/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A GENLY DRY WX PTRN
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE SOME NOTED DIFFERENCES. THE MAIN
ONE BEING THE DEEPER UPR TROF ACRS THE GRTLKS BY TUE. DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTING S/W ON SAT...WL PROBLY HAVE TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF POPS FOR PTNS OF THE CWA TO
START THE WEEKEND. A NWLY FLO REGIME THEN DVLPG ACRS THE PLAINS
IN THE SUNDAY THRU TUE PDS AS RDG BUILDS ACRS THE WRN U.S.  THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE CHCS FOR ISOLD CNVTN TO THE W ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MAXS BASED ON THE PROGD H8 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE TOLERABLE
UPR 80S ON AVG...WITH MINS IN THE LWR/MID 60S.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   74  95  70  93 /  40  40  60  50
HUT   72  94  68  89 /  50  40  60  50
EWK   71  95  68  91 /  40  40  60  50
EQA   73  96  69  92 /  40  40  60  50
WLD   75  98  71  95 /  30  40  60  40
RSL   67  90  65  87 /  60  40  60  40
GBD   71  90  66  88 /  50  40  60  50
SLN   69  91  67  88 /  50  40  60  50
MPR   70  93  67  89 /  50  40  60  50
CFV   75  97  70  94 /  20  30  50  40
CNU   74  95  70  92 /  20  30  60  40
K88   73  95  70  90 /  30  30  60  40

.ICT...
KS...NONE.