Hail in Kansas, April 14, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

EVENING CONVECTION MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FIRING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL THETA E AXIS.  LAPS DATA SUGGESTS A SFC BNDRY SOUTH OF CWFA.
WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...IF BNDRY SURGES
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH RUC40 CAPES 1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN SE CWFA.  WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO
GET A BOOST FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT IMPACT UNTIL BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AFTER MID EVENING.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CWFA LATER THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THE RUC LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH
WITH DEW POINT POOLING AND CAPES TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT A SHOWER OR
STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEBR...AS EVIDENCED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.  ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO RIGHT REAR QUAD JET
DIVERGENCE.  WILL INSERT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE FAR N CWFA.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND FRONT...THEN MUCH COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  IN GENERAL HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AROSS THE
BOARD...MEANING A SLIGHT DROP IN FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD.

WHILE NCEP HAS ITS DOUBTS ABOUT THE ETAS 12Z RUN...ITS PRECIPITATION
GENERATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ADVERTISED.  295K ISENT LIFT OVER THIS COLD AIR SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT IN THE SW CWFA...WITH A LITTLE
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN ALONG THE NORTHEAST FRINGE.  AVN IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE LIFT BUT SLOW WITH SATURATION AND PRECIP.  THEREFORE
LOW POPS NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPS FORECAST IN 25 TO 30 RANGE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL 2 TO 3
WEEKS BEFORE AVERAGE DATE OF LAST FREEZE.  MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS
SUNDAY IF INDICATIONS OF COLD TEMPS/SNOW INCREASES WITH NEXT RUN.

HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO THE EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-142100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1151 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM
FRONT EDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMEN(T.

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

GUYER