Tornado and Hail in Kansas, April 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE THREAT FOR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA EARLY TONIGHT. 20Z SFC OBS SHOWED A SFC LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF DDC WITH DRY LINE PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
THINK THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO GET CONVECTION GOING EARLY OVER PART
OF THE EASTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA, SO WILL KEEP THE POPS AND
THE MENTION FOR SEVERE EARLY THESE COUNTIES.

WITH UPPER VORT MOVING EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT, DOWNWARD MOTION WILL
DOMINATE. THEREFORE, WILL MENTION DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE AT
OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE CWA EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY, WEAK CAA WILL BE THE RULE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FWC
NUMBERS LOOK VERY REASONABLE, SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY. PCPN LOOKS TO
BE NIL THIS PERIOD.

NEXT WX MAKER TO AFFECT CWA DURING MONDAY. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
DURING MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, HAVE TO AGREE WITH GUIDANCE. UPSHOT IS
THAT HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, WILL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES THANKS
TO A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVEL TO THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL ALSO KEEP
A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED SHOWER ABOVE
THE COLD DOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE MRF AND YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MRF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THIS
MORNINGS AVN ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS MRF.  HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE POLAR REGIONS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BLANKET
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING IN THE HAYS AREA.
CLEARING WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.  WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO MENTION SOME UPPER 20S AND WILL ALSO BACK OFF A
BIT ON WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AS LINGERING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION.  MRF STILL SHOWING A
PIECE OF ENERGY GETTING EJECTED FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 040/070 041/058 035 000
GCK 039/069 041/057 034 000
EHA 037/074 039/061 033 000
LBL 039/071 042/060 036 000
HYS 038/069 036/055 029 000
P28 046/074 045/061 037 100

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

...STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FROM 4 PM UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A STAFFORD TO BUCKLIN TO ASHLAND LINE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 7 PM. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
BETWEEN 7 PM AND SUNSET, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SCHEDULE OF STORM IDENTIFICATION AND SPOTTER
TRAINING SESSIONS FOR SPECIFIC COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

STARTING TIMES ARE ALL AT 7 PM, UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE.

CLARK...MONDAY...MINNEOLA AT THE CIVIC CENTER.
SCOTT...THURSDAY...SCOTT CITY AT THE LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTER.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT:d
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/

16