Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, April 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

TSRA HAVE FORMED ALONG H8 FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLIDING INTO WRN CWA.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN. SURGING SFC BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE THE NEXT ONE LATER THIS EVENING. SHTWV COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES IS THE INSTIGATOR. MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNING WILL LIGHT UP
THE SFC BOUNDRY.

SHTWV MOVES THRU PRETTY QUICK WITH DOWNWARD MOTION BY 12Z. MAY SEE
SOME REMAINING SHOWERS LEAVING ERN CWA EARLY.  ONLY OTHER THING TO
LOOK AT WAS THE CHC OF RAIN ON MONDAY. 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT PRETTY
DECENT IN THE WRN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED CHC OF RAIN. MDLS STILL IN
AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPS COME DOWN AHEAD OF SFC HIGH. HAVE GENRLY
GONE WITH MAV GUID TEMPS.

NXT CHC FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE SAT IN THE EXTENDED.

.EAX...NONE

LVQ

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

FORECAST:  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION:  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE OVER KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...IT WILL DRAW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH.  THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD REACH I-70 BEFORE STALLING.  THIS FRONT...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK:  DRY AND COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEpK
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JM

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