Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, August 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EST WED AUG 22 2001

KIWX RADAR STILL SHOWING A FEW SHRA LINGERING OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL WAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NEB WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS IA THEN BENDING SE
THRU CENTRAL IL. CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS FOUND OVER SE CORNER OF
MN. PROFILER DATA INDICATES THIS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF LLJ. MODELS
OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SO WILL ATTEMPT TO HAVE FCST
REPRESENT BLEND OF THESE DIFFERENCES. BOTH ETA AND AVN SIMILAR IN
BRINGING FIRST COMPLEX ACROSS MI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY.
THICKNESS PROGS FAVORS ETA SOLN THAT BRINGS MAX LIFT AND PRECIP A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. HAD INTENDED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORTH BUT LOOKING AT LATEST KIWX RADAR...REDEVELOPMENT IN NW CWA
MAY END UP WITH CAT POPS. WILL ALSO GO WITH MENTION OF STRONG
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AFTER THIS COMPLEX PASSES THIS AFTERNOON SFC
WAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND LEAVE BEHIND AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TO SOUTHERN CWA. QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH SS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND RESULTING INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT. RIGHT
NOW APPEARS WILL GET LI OF -4 TO -6 AND CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SHIFT LIKELY POPS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF STRONG STORMS. FRONT TO PUSH JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU. MAY BREAK OFF A SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE MORNING THEN DRY FCST TILL SAT.
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE AND REASONABLY ALL PERIODS EXPECT FIRST WHERE
BLEND WILL BE USED.

.IWX...NONE.

JAL