Dust Storm in Idaho, July 14, 2001

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
250 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2001

INTERESTING EVENING SHAPING UP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE RIDING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
FLANK OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO AND OREGON. WITH GOOD SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND POSSIBLE STRONG SUPPORT FROM A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE WITH
MUTUALLY SUPPORTING DIVERGENT REGIONS ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING THE BIG NEWS IS THE BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AS A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST USA.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING DOWN THE COAST OF CANADA
TODAY. ALL THE MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE SIMILARLY...BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST IDAHO ZONES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS COOLING TREND ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOW THE
WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO HANG UP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR A WHILE BEFORE BREAKING OUT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORM RISK REMAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY PROVIDING FOCUS AND LIFT.

EXTENDED...TROFFY PATTERN WITH UNSETTLED AIR MASS AND CHANCE MENTION
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN ZONES
ENJOY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. EVERYONE CATCHES A BREAK FROM
SUMMER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY. /FUGAZZI

.BOI...NONE.