Flash Flooding and Hail in Colorado, July 14, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
310 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENTLY...BEST CONVECTION OVER THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT STILL ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE.  THERE AREA COUNTLESS
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND ACCORDING THE AREA RADARS.  LATEST ACARS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A MIDDLE LEVEL CAPS.  PLENTY OF
CAPE OVER THE PLAINS...2000 JOULES PLUS.  WATER VAPOR PICTURE DO
SHOW A SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORMS THIS EVENING.   WILL
LEAVE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WATCH IS OK SO FAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  PERSISTENCE.  UPPER RIDGE STAYS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF US THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOISTURE GRIDS/CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRYING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  EVEN SOME
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY.   WATER VAPOR PICTURES DO
SHOW A BIT OF A "PINCHING OFF" OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MOISTURE
STREAM...BUT THEN THERE'S QUITE MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AREA.  THE LOW LEVEL DRYING SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING ON
SUNDAY.  NOT CONVINCED IT WILL PUSH THAT FAR EAST INTO KANSAS AND
LEAVE US WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ALL THE GROUND MOISTURE RIGHT NOW.  WILL STILL GO WITH 30% POPS
FOR NOW.  MONDAY'S GRIDS SHOW IS MOISTENING UP A BIT...SO "SCATTERED
POPS AGAIN.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW A BIT OF WARM-UP WITH THE
DRYING ON SUNDAY...SIMILAR READINGS FOR MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CENTER STAYING
SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS
LEVEL...BUT WITH HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES IN
MIND...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE" THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS...MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.     RJK

.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES 34..36..38>51.

COZ030>051-142000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1015 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREATEN THE AREA AGAIN...

SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO AND DAYTIME HEATING REACTS WITH
THE MOISTURE...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED.  THE STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE NOON HOUR...AND THEN ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS
AFTER 2 PM MDT.  THE STORMS ON THE PLAINS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALSO OVER THE MONUMENT AND CHEYENNE
RIDGES...AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS TODAY...
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THIS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS.  PEOPLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ARE URGED TO REMAIN
ALERT TO RISING WATERS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.  MORE
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SO A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY I2 PM.  REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AN INCH OR MORE IN 30 MINUTES...ARE ALSO APPRECIATED.

BARJENBRUCH