Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, July 14, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
211 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2001

MAIN CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.  OTHER CONCERN IS
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONTINUED NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE THROUGH
ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO CO...WITH A DRIER SLOT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO.  A SHORTWAVE IS IN THE FLOW WAS OVER UT.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED OVER THE MTNS...AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE PLAINS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN MTNS.

THIS EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOWN IN THE 300-200MB PV WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS CO...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO. THIS WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION SOMEWHAT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING OVER THE AREA...AND HIGH
DEW POINTS INDICATING THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
EASTWARD.  THIS EVENING THE 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW AT 10
TO 15 KTS WITH 500MB WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 KTS.
THESE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE TRAINING
OF STORMS AGAIN ALONG BOUNDARIES. HAD MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALLL YESTERDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR FLOODING
THIS EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER EL PASO COUNTY.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER EL
PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS EXPECTED...AND WITH ALL THE RAIN
THAT WAS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LOOKS
BEST OVER THIS AREA.  HAVE ALREADY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL
PASO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN.

ON SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRYING OVER THE AREA...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED AROUND WEST TX.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE ABUNDANT. WILL AGAIN SEE MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD.  WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER AND MAYBE A LONGER PERIOD OF
HEATING ON SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN MILD.

MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND SRN OK/NRN TX...WITH NO UPPER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SW.  THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MTNS...
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED (TUE-SAT):  TUE AND WED LOOK MUCH LIKE MON WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER OK AND A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN WE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS.  TEMPS ALSO REMAIN MUCH THE SAME.  ON WED THE
MRF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF NM ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  THEN ON FRIDAY AND
SAT THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES BACK WESTWARD...WITH A CUTOFF LOW
EXPECTED OVER CA.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

PUB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 71 AND 72.

COZ058>081-141900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AGAIN...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.  HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.

OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NOT START UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP.  IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.