Hail in Florida, July 8, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

CURRENTLY/OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK IN A FEW
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES...BUT STORMS WERE FIRING
UPSTREAM AND EXPECT ENOUGH RECOVERY FOR SCATTERED EVENING STORMS
THERE.  ELSEWHERE THE SEA BREEZE WAS MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPING BUT
OTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE GENERATING A FEW STORMS.
EXPECT ONCE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BEGINS ITS RETROGRESSION AS CANADIAN VORTEX DROPS FROM HUDSON BAY
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST U.S.  BIG THREE ARE UNANIMOUS IN ADVECTING
DEEP MOISTURE (AT LEAST 2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER) SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IN DEVELOPING SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.  INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MODERATE AS
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NOT FORECAST TO COOL...EXCEPT FOR AVN WHICH
LOOKS OVERDONE WITH 500 MB TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE LOW LEVEL FOCUSING AND CONVERGENCE.  BIG THREE
PLUS UKMET SHOW DEVELOPING WEST GRADIENT FLOW IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
4 MB ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY.  FIGURE THAT THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL INHIBIT
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.  SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LIKELY IN VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...WITH
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING
CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD.

THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME AREAS BEING "GUST FRONTED" AND COVERAGE IS
SOMETIMES NOT AS GREAT AS EXPECTED.  THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW.  NOT SURE WHY AVN POPS ARE LOWER
TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL 2 INCHES PLUS.

EXTENDED...LAST SEVERAL MRF RUNS SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER COASTAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ONCE THE
GRADIENT FLOW EASES AND ALLOWS A SEA BREEZE.  DO NOT SEE ANY REASON
TO GO WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY GROUPING
RIGHT NOW AS IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
SO FAR OUT.

MARINE...PLAN ON CONTINUING WITH NORTH SOUTH BREAKUP BUT GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF GUIDANCE...WILL BUMP UP NORTH LEG TO 15 KNOTS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB TT 073/091 074/091 074 4535
MCO TT 073/091 074/091 074 4535
MLB TT 073/091 074/092 074 4545

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER