Hail in Colorado, June 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2001

THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING HAD BEEN DRIFTING
WEST SLOWLY. NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENS THE LOW AND MOVES THE LOW
INTO TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THIS EVENING...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL OVER EASTERN
KANSAS DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C AT TOPEKA.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW FILLS
AND MOVES SOUTHWEST.

TROF WITH WEAK THERMAL SUPPORT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CONVECTION FINALLY BROKE
THE CAP JUST NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE AROUND 20Z NEAR CENTER OF
THETA-E RIDGE WITH CENTER OF 360+ K. EXPECT MOISTURE RICH AIR WITH
THETA-E GREATER THAN 355K WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LOCAL CASE STUDY SHOWS GOOD CORRELATION BETWEEN 700 MB TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. FORECAST YIELDS BASICALLY 95 TO 100 FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NGM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL FOLLOW.
THE MAV COOLS TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY (84 AT GLD)...BUT WILL REJECT
THIS AS EVEN CHANCE FOR A BACK DOOR FROPA APPEARS REMOTE GIVEN THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE CHANCE FOR A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT APPEARS
MUCH BETTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF AMPLIFIES IN
THE EAST. THE TREND OF THE AVN/MRF HAS BEEN TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF THAT SINKS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS POSITION SHOULD SUPPORT A COOLING TREND LATE NEXT
WEEK.

.GLD...NONE.

SKIPPER