Damaging Winds in Colorado, July 5, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
234 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  ACCORDING TO THE AVN AND MRF ANALYSIS...THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST USA WINS THE HIGHEST 500 HGTS
LEVEL AWARD FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMI COMING IN AT AT HOT 5970
METERS.  THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE THE CRUCIBLE BY WHICH NO COOL
SHORTWAVE TROF FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST CAN PUNCH THROUGH.  IT JUST
CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG 37DEG NORTH LAT AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 100 AND
110DEG LONGITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...
WILL NEED TO WATCH CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS WE ARE
PROBABLY IN THE MONSOON REGIME.  TUCSON AND OTHER DESERT LOCATIONS
HAVE HAD SFC DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR A
FEW DAYS.  CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO REACH NORTH INTO COLO VIA THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.  ANOTHER MONSOON SIGNAL IS THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLO LAST NIGHT.  THIS MID AND UPPER LVL
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO ANYWHERE FAST...SO DAYTIME HEATING
AND ANY OTHER SFC FEATURES MAY BE THE TRIGGERS THAT GETS CONVECTION
GOING EACH DAY.  WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL BE VERY
WARM TEMP SOUNDINGS UNDER THIS RIDGE.  TODAYS DEN 12Z THU SOUNDING
SHOWING ABSENCE OF MID LVL CAP AND CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NRN-CEN MTNS ATTM.  WILL WATCH THIS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO GAUGE POPS FOR TONIGHT.  GOING INTO TOMORROW...
MESO-ETA INDICATES A WEAK SFC SURGE MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AT APPROX 18Z FRI AND A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
700-500 HGTS.  700 TEMPS FOR FRI ARE QUITE HIGH IN THE 16-18 DEGC
BUT COOL DOWN INTO 06Z SAT.  WILL PLAN ON SCT COVERAGE FOR FRI IN
AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS OUT ON THE PLAINS.  MESO-ETA SHOWS
HIGHER RHS AT SFC LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SURGE...BUT ATTM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE CLOUDY FOR FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT MORNING.  WILL PLAN ON ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE
FOR SATURDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVR OKLAHOMA.  UPPER WINDS
WILL HAVE A DIRECT TRAJECTORY FROM NRN MEX TO COLO BUT AGAIN
FORECAST SOUNDING CONTINUE WARM AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
MID 90S.  THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR HIGHER POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERR.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
PRECIP WATER VAULES HOLDING AROUND 1.00 INCH...STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS AND UPPER LVLS HOLDING MOIST.  NOT THE BEST SHEAR HOWEVER.
MESO-ETA DEVELOPS WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS FROM SFC TO 700MB AND HOLDS
THE QUASI-UPSLOPE SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

TODAY IS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH 90DEGF AND HIGHER AND MARKS THE
21ST TIME A STREAK OF 8 HAS HAPPENED IN DENVER HISTORY.  TOMORROW
SHD MAKE IT 9 IN A ROW WHICH WILL BE THE 14TH TIME THAT HAS
HAPPENED.  MAV GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST WITH LONGTERM MRF GUIDANCE
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INTO THE WEEKEND BUT COOLING
DOWN A CATEGORY NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...PRETTY MUCH WHAT THE
OVRNIGHT SHIFT FCSTR SAID WITH RESPECT TO THE MRF.  RIDGE STICKS
AROUND BUT NOT THE BEST PLACEMENT FOR DIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
FLOW.  CENTER OF HIGH IS ON THE COLO/NEW MEX BORDER BY WED...BUT
TEMP GUIDANCE TRENDS DOWN.  WITH MOISTURE AT ANY LEVEL AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY DESPITE WARM UPPER LVLS.        FREDIN

.DEN...NONE.