Hail in Colorado, July 3, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS WHERE FRONT MAY STALL OUT ACROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE MORNING IN EASTERN WY/NW NE
ASSOCIATED WITH PV LOBE/UPPER JET AND UPSLOPE BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN WY/NE COLORADO AND SRN NE.  EXPECT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED UNDER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AGAIN...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MID AND HIGH LEVEL (AS
EVIDENT ON 12Z GJT SOUNDING)...SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN GUSTY WIND THREAT AND
LIGHTNING.  PV FEATURE IN NE COLORADO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST CLIPPING
BY EASTERN PLAINS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MESO ETA
INDICATING MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD MOVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST INTO SE COLORADO AND WESTERN KS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN
PLAINS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...SOME
CONCERN FOR MARGINAL SVR IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT LOWER 50 DEW POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH LAPS CAPES OF 1200 TO 1500 ACROSS THIS
AREA.  WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN VIS IMGRY APPARENT STRETCHING ACROSS
KIOWA COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF LIC.  0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
40 KTS AFTER 00Z.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER...STILL
ABOVE 15K FT WITH WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 14KFT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WOULD BE NORTH OF CWA...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND
HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...ESPECIALLY FOR KIOWA COUNTY.  WILL
MAINTAIN 30 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH NO TIMERS. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED POPS STILL GOOD WITH TSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS DYING OFF
DIURNALLY.

WED/WED NIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT PROGRESSES A TAD SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL LIES ACROSS NE COLORADO...PERHAPS CLIPPING
EASTWARD THROUGH KIOWA COUNTY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.  AVN
IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ETA/MESO ETA ON FRONTAL
POSITION...WHICH PREVIOUS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY HAD MOVING INTO ALL OF
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER
HIGH...DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW SOME
WEAK FEATURE WHICH MOVES INTO NE COLORADO/WRN NE WED EVENING...AND
BECOMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OVERNIGHT. MORE CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN...MAINLY HIGH
BASED AND ISOLATED OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO/WRN NE WHICH COULD AGAIN SEND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS
FROM MESO ETA ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY DRY OUT SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY (40-45F) BUT WITH OUTFLOW BNDRYS FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...PERHAPS THIS IS A BIT TOO DRY. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO TIMERS AS CONVECTION
MAY CONTINUE ALONG BNDRYS OVERNIGHT. WILL GO CLOSER TO FWC TEMP
NUMBERS.

THURS/THURS NIGHT...
BOTH MESO ETA/AVN AGREE IN SAGGING FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG. SINCE MESO ETA HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
AVN ON THIS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THIS SOUTHWARD SOLUTION FOR NOW.
DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT WITH CAPES OF 1000-1300 ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WILL PLACE
SOME 20 POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
30S IN THE EVENING. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT HOWEVER. UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER AREA...WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY. ELSEWHERE...20
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MAV NUMBERS STILL LOOK TOO COOL. AVN BRINGS ANOTHER PV
MAX INTO WRN CO THURS NIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT...BUT ETA IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS
FEATURE.  TOO FAR OUT TO RESOLVE DETAILS ON THIS JUST YET.

EXTENDED...

UPPER HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A BETTER INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  PERIODIC WEAK NORTHERLY SURGES MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THESE FRONTS
WILL REALLY PENETRATE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EAST...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY.

.PULB...NONE.

KT