Hail and Damaging Winds in Colorado, July 26, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
225 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2001

...SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING MAIN CONCERN...

PUB SOO HAS SPOTTED A CLEAR LHX CYCLONE CIRCULATION IN .5 DEG
REFLECTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A NUMBER OF CELLS HAVE FIRED
ALONG AN AREA OF STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...
EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM.  SO FAR...NOTHING TOO
IMPRESSIVE.  STORMS ARE FIRING BASED ON CAPE...BUT THEN CAN'T DO
MUCH WITH THE MAIN TRIGGER STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
SHEAR VALUES ARE INCREASING WITH 0-6 KM VALUES ABOUT 35 KNOTS BY
00Z...AND THIS MAY ENTICE SOME OF THE CAPE-BASED STORMS TO ROTATE
AND BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS...THUS
ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  WE DID HAVE ONE
STORM EARLIER THAT SHOWED SOME BROAD UPPER LEVEL ROTATION THAT MOVED
OFF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUT THAT'S IT SO FAR.  THERE IS A LOT
OF CAPE OUT THERE...HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S.  THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE WEATHER AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONTINUES.  IN THE AREAS WHERE NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING RIGHT
NOW...THIS ONLY ACTS TO HEIGHTEN THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER
ON...AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRESENTLY BEING ALLOWED TO PRIME.
PRESENTLY...WE MAY BE STARTING TO SEE THE LIFTING EFFECTS OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN COLORADO...AS STORMS SEEM TO BE
PICKING UP STRENGTH ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE DOWN INTO THE LA
GARITAS.  THIS FEATURE MAY REALLY GET THINGS GOING IN THE EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMES ACROSS.  ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF
NOTE IS THE LINE OF INTENSE STORMS THAT IS FORMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS ATTM...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PARKER UP TO
FORT MORGAN.  THIS LINE MAY SEND SOME ORGANIZED OUTFLOW SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE TRIGGER.  MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORTWAVE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
STATE TONIGHT...SO NO TIMERS ON CONVECTION.

FRIDAY...WILL BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE BASED ON SLOWER PASSAGE OF UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS STATE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  STILL LOOKS LIKE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DYNAMICS/BOUNDARIES.

SATURDAY...LOOKS DRIER BUT MORE UNSTABLE TOO.  SO WILL STILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY/STABLE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL LET CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST
RIDE...AS CAN SEE NO SIGNIFICANT REASON TO UPDATE ATTM.  LOOKS LIKE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER KANSAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A BETTER MONSOON FLUX INTO THE
STATE...AND POSSIBLY WARRANTING BETTER POPS...BUT UNCERTAIN ATTM.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HIGH CENTER SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...POSSIBLY LIMITED MONSOON FLUX...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAIN ATTM.

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-261900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WILL ALSO HELP
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.  ONE OR TWO
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER BETWEEN 1 AND 9 PM.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE LA GARITA AND EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE COLLEGIATE RANGE...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY EARLIER...BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH...ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS WEEK...
INCLUDING EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...MAY EXPERIENCE LOCAL RUNOFF AND
FLOODING PROBLEMS BY THIS EVENING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEV%ELOPS.