Hail and Lightning Strikes in Colorado, July 25, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
250 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2001

STLT LOOP AND AFTN RADAR LOOP SUGGEST THAT MAIN THRUST OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MSTR HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO W OVR AZ INTO UT AND ENTAINED
INTO CIRC ARND CLSD UPR LO OVR SRN CA.  MDLS OPEN THIS UPR LO AND
MOVE IT AS AN UPR TROF INTO CNTRL RCKYS ON THU.  AVN IS FASTER IN
MOVG THIS SYS ACRS AREA THU NGT WHILE ETA HANGS ONTO A WK UPR TROF
OVR AREA ON FRI.  REGARDLESS...THU NGT LUKS LIKE BEST CHC FOR PCPN
ACRS AREA AS COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MSTR AND GUD DYNAMICS WILL
PROVIDE STG UPWARD LIFT.  BOTH NGM AND MESOETA INCRS PRECIPITIBLE
WATERS WELL ABV AN INCH AND CAPES WILL RMN HI.  THUS THERE WILL
BE AN INCRSD THRT OF SVR TSTMS AND HVY RAIN FM LATE THU AFTN THRU
THU NGT.  ON FRI MESOETA SHWS DCRS IN PRECIPITIBLE WATERS AND
MUCH LESS CAPE AS AMS STARTS TO DRY AND STBLIZE.  WILL LEAVE ONLY
A MENTION OF LATE DAY SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS AREA.  WITH MORE CLDNS
AND PCPN THU TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND MAY BE SLO TO WRM MUCH ON FRI
WITH UPR TROF EXITING AREA.  OVRNGT LO TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL ESPCLY
FRI NGT WITH CLRNG SKIES.  GENLY FVRD MESOETA SFC TEMPS FOR MAX
READINGS AND AVN MOS GDNC FOR MIN TEMPS.

IN XTNDD PRD...AFT PASSAGE OF GUD UPR TROF ON FRI MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO CNTRL RCKYS ON WLY FLO ALF AND SUPPRESSES TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MSTR TO S.  THIS DRIER AIR AND DWNSLP FLO WILL DIMINISH
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION ON SAT AND SUN.  HWVR MRF RETURNS TO SWLY
FLO AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MSTR NWD AGN INTO CNTRL RCKYS ON MON INTO
TUE.  WILL THUS INCRS THRT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION ON MON THRU WED.
WITH DRYING OVR WKND TEM-PS WILL WRM AND THEN COOL AGN ERLY NXT WEEK
WITH MORE CLDS AND MSTR.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-252200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
155 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A STRONG CAP IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE HAS LARGELY SUPPRESSED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN UTAH MOVING TOWARD THE
DISTRICT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
SUCCESSFUL AT BREAKING THROUGH THIS CAP AFTER 4 PM. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS AFTER 5 PM.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  THE
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND ANY STORM WHICH
REMAINS INTACT EAST OF A BRIGGSDALE-KARVAL LINE WILL ENCOUNTER A
LESS THUNDERSTORM-HOSTILE ATMOSPHERE.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THIS AREA BY 6 PM AND HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO
AN INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS LINE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A MUCH GREATER LIKELIH@OOD OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.