High Wind in California, November 24, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 AM PST SAT NOV 24 2001

SAT IMAGES AND RADAR SHOWING THE INITIAL ONSET OF WARM OVERRUNNING
PRECIP ENTERING NORCAL THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP AREAS WAS EXTENDING
DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE DISTRICT. SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOW TOTAL PRECIP WATER
/TPW/ FROM THIS DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE OVER ONE INCH.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/S OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIP WATER SO FEEL THAT OVER ONE INCH ON SAT ANALYSIS IS IN THE
BALL PARK.

AVN SOLUTION THIS MORNING SHOWING THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION NEAR 18Z /10AM/...AS SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CAL. AVN SOLUTION A BIT FASTER THAN THE ETA/NGM...BUT WILL
GO WITH AVN TIMING AS PRECIP HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER NORCAL. ALL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SWINGING THE UPPER TROF AXIS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HEAVIER PRECIP TO START OVER THE DISTRICT CLOSER TO THE NOON
HOUR WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE SIERRA. WITH MUCH OF THE
COLD AIR NOT FILTERING INTO THE DISTRICT UNTIL AFTER 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF THE QPF VALUES IN THE FORM
OF RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET. THE SNOW LINE WILL START ABOVE 7000 TO 8000
FEET AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES ABOVE 8000 FEET. FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE TODAY AS
GOOD RUNOFF OCCURS. BY THIS EVENING...COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR 3500 TO 4000 FEET TO
THE NORTH AND NEAR 4500 TO 5000 FEET OVER KERN COUNTY. WITH THE
LATEST QPF VALUES GIVEN FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA...WILL CONTINUE WITH
WINTER STORM WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 8 TO 16 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET. BY SUNDAY...THE
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MODAY CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
RESULT IN +12MB SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO-LAS. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT
WINDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SJV. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR THE VALLEY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DISTRICT WILL START
FROM MERCED AROUND NOON AND SWING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL INTRODUCE A WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...WILL EXPECT MUCH OF TUESDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT DISTURANCE WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT ON THURSDAY AS WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST.
THE UNSETTLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
       YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
       SUNDAY.
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
       ...THE MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND THE
       TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS FOR TODAY.
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN
       COUNTY DESERTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MOLINA

CAZ093-094-250000-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
512 AM PST SAT NOV 24 2001

...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL HIT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...

SCATTERED RAIN WAS FALLING THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF HIGH THIS MORNING...AND BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL
DROP DOWN TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
STRONG PACIFIC STORM. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. IN THE FOOTHILLS...LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...AND STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

MOLINA