High Wind in California, November 22, 2001

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
435 PM PST THU NOV 22 2001

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS IT SWINGS THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...FAST W-NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEST WITH
STRONG PACIFIC JET (160 KTS +) NOSING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND VORTICITY CENTER SWINGING
ACROSS NORTHERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NV AND NORTHWEST AZ
TONIGHT. WINDS STILL WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY. MAJOR WIND EVENT IN KERN COUNTY WITH SOME
FIRE WEATHER (RAWS) STATIONS HITTING GUSTS OVER 100 MPH DID HAVE
SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DUE TO BLOWING DUST BUT
(THANKFULLY) HAVE NOT HAD WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE OR ANY DAMAGE
REPORTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THOSE ZONES
INTO THE EVENING. BREEZY ELSEWHERE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT.

STRONG STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT JUST A
BIT SLOWER IN TIMING THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST MAJOR SNOW STORM OF THE SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THE SIERRA AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN NV MOUNTAINS IN LINE TO SEE THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH
STRONG JET AND DEEP COUPLING/UPWARD FORCING FORECAST TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE WATCHES FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT.
OTHER FACTOR WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH 60-70KT 700MB JET FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALREADY LOOKING LIKE A GABBS WIND EVENT
FOR SATURDAY AND AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT WEATHER TO REMAIN COOL AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. MRF HAS BEEN ON A ROLE LATELY AND APPEARS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF. NEXT SHORT WAVE (MUCH WEAKER)
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY.

NEMETH

.LAS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.