Winter Storm and Flooding in California, March 4 to 7, 2001

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PST SUN MAR 4 2001

SO FAR THE BIG STORM PREDICTED FOR TODAY HAS PRODUCED A LOT OF WIND BUT
VERY LITTLE RAIN. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIP IS NOW APPROACHING SBA AND
88D WIND PROFILERS INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH FROM 2000-6000
FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP GET THINGS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA AND VTU
COUNTIES ONCE THE LOW LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES. IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY STALLED JUST OFFSHORE,
PROBABLY THE RESULT OF BUMPING INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND
SE CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE AVN AGAIN HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE ETA AND
MESO ETA WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP AMOUNTS, WILL ASSUME IT IS STILL ON
TRACK. 12Z AVN HAS THE FIRST BAND OF MOISTURE ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z FROM VENTURA COUNTY WEST, THEN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FOR LA COUNTY.
THIS PRETTY MUCH COINCIDES WITH THE WORDING IN THE ZONES SO I DONT SEE
MUCH REASON TO UPDATE NOW. 100 PERCENT POPS FOR LA COUNTY MIGHT BE
OVERDOING IT, BUT I EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THERE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHETHER WERE STILL GOING TO GET THE BIG
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WERE PREDICTED SATURDAY. 12Z MESO ETA IS STILL
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
BUT CONSIDERING ITS NOT DONE WELL WITH THOSE UP TO NOW, AM SUSPICIOUS
OF THE FORECAST AMOUNTS LATER ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AVN IS QUITE A BIT
LOWER, BUT THEN AGAIN IT OFTEN IS BECAUSE IT DOESNT INCLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. FOR NOW, I STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT AM NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT AS I
WAS SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE REALLY CRANKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 23 REPORTED GUSTS TO 50 KT LAST HOUR AND THE OTHER
BUOYS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. INLAND, WINDS ARE QUITE A BIT LIGHTER BUT
CERTAINLY WORTHY OF A WIND ADVISORY. SO THE MESO DID A GREAT JOB WITH THE
WIND FORECAST YESTERDAY, NOW WE JUST NEED SOME RAIN.

AVN KEEPS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WELL INTO MONDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BIT OF A BREAK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN BETWEEN COLD
FRONTS, BUT SOUTH OF THERE IT SHOULD BE A CONTINOUS RAIN EVENT, HEAVY
AT TIMES.

LAX +++. WOFFORD

.LAX...FLOOD WATCH...SEE LAXFFALAX.
       WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWLAX.
       WINTER STORM WATCH...SEE LAXWSWLAX.
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSLAX.
       SCA/GALE WARNING...SEE LAXCWFLAX.

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-088-042000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
600 AM PST SUN MAR 4 2001

...SUMMARY OF ALL NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SAN LUIS
OBISPO...SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...

...LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

WINTER STORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

...VENTURA COUNTY...

WINTER STORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.

FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...

WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.

HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.

BARTLING