Wildfire in California, June 14, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR WITH WARM DAYS INLAND.

                            ...DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE PATCHES OF STRATUS ALONG S COAST THIS AM WITH WEAK EDDY AND
THERE WAS A LITTLE GROUND FOG IN INLAND VALLEYS EARLY...OTHERWISE CLEAR.
OFFSHORE TRENDS WITH OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM NE AND ABOUT -3 MB SAN-TPH
AND NEARLY FLAT GRADIENTS TO E. THERE WERE SOME NE WINDS SHOWING UP NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AM BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH AND WEAKENING
THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVE AS SURFACE
HI OVER NV SHIFT E AND UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT DECREASE. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT BROAD UPPER HI WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SE AND MERGE
WITH E PAC HI. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS/850 MB TEMPS
LOCALLY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TO MOUNTAINS/DESERTS AND A LITTLE MORE
WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BOTH ON SYNOPTIC
SCALE AND TO DEVELOPING DESERT THERMAL LOW WILL MODERATE MAX TEMPS NEAR
COAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE A STRONG/LOW INVERSION FOR A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER THAT WILL CONFINE NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE
FRI NIGHT/SAT AM AS ONSHORE REDEVELOPS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS KEEP UPPER HI OVER SW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES MOVING PAST FAR TO THE N FOR BASICALLY LITTLE CHANGE. SHOULD GET
A LITTLE COOLING TOWARD THE END OF EXTENDED PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME HI
CLOUDS.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN