Tornado and Hail in Texas, June 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AND DRY
LINE BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND OKLAHOMA CITY.  WITH MANY HOURS OF
ADDITIONAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE RUC
SUGGESTS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS...BUT IT ALSO SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT THE 700MB LEVEL WILL
COOL OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME...SO THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...
BEFORE THE FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE...SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OUT
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TORNADO WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
THIS AREA WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TONIGHT IN THE NORTH...AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE SOUTH. AS THE RAINS MOVE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GO
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH...AND CHANCE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED
GUIDANCE VERY MUCH...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT....AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS. STILL BELIEVE THE
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME GOOD
RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 84
DFW   72  90  69  94 /  70  20   0   0
ACT   72  92  69  95 /  50  30  10   0

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-142100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FOR THAT PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...WEST OF
SHERMAN...WEATHERFORD...TO COMANCHE LINE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO MIDLAND TEXAS
AT MIDDAY...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S.  STORMS THAT FORM IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  DURING THE EARLY STAGE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THESE NIGHTTME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.
ACTIVATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS IS POSSIBLE AFTER
8 PM.

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TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THAT
PART OF NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF A COMANCHE...CORSICANA...CANTON LINE.
FOR THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT...POSITIONED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING ALONG A DUNCAN OKLAHOMA...TO ABILENE LINE AT MID AFTERNOON.
THE LINE WILL MOVE STEADY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED BY A WARM
LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AT MID AFTERNOON.  THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION BEFORE 8 PM WEST OF A BONHAM...TO LAMPASAS LINE.
ACTIVATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS MAY BE REQUESTED
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

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