Lightning Strikes in California, August 9, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT THU AUG 9 2001

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGF COOLER TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
CWA. AN EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A FEW HIGHER SIERRA SITES WHERE DECREASED
CU DEVELOPMENT HAS ALLOWED MORE INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER CELLS THIS EVE WILL REMAIN IN AREA OF MAX CAPE EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AT
THE HIGHER ELEVS TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS.

PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CENTER OF STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL
SLOWLY REORIENT CLOSER TO THE FOUR-CORNERS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW
EVOLVES OVER THE ERN PAC. HIGH WILL UNDERGO MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFT NE INTO THE PAC NW. WITH H5 HEIGHTS
REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE 590 DM...AND WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN BL
THICKNESSES THRU DAY 7...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE MONITORING MAGNITUDE OF
ONSHORE GRADIENTS FOR POSSIBLE MARINE INTRUSIONS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SJ VALLEY. GRADS HAVE SUPPORTED A PUSH THRU THE
DELTA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL INCREASE IN GRADS MAY ALLOW FLOW TO PROGRESS
FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER DEPTH SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW AMPLE TEMP RECOVERY FRI AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH ONSHORE GRADS BEING SUSTAINED. HOWEVER...WITH SHORTWAVES WELL
OFFSHORE...MARINE INTRUSIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH VALLEY TEMPS.

ONE CHANGE IN 12Z GUIDANCE IS PROGGED STRENGTH OF UPPER HIGH WITH AN
INCREASED E-SE FLOW ALOFT INTO SOCAL. ALTHOUGH EXACT CENTER OF HIGH
WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTED TOWARD THE
CWA...WILL INTRO POPS TO HIER ELEVS FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION THRU THE
EXTENDED.

.HNX...NONE.

JSN