Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 14, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

FORECAST A LITTLE BEHIND SCHED DUE TO MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE. MAIN
PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF TSRA TONIGHT. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BACK EDGE OF STORMS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
THE AREA... ENDING BEFORE 6Z AT KTUL AND AROUND 12Z ACROSS FAR SE
ZONES. COULD SEE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL PRECIP IN THE VERY SE CORNER
OF CWA AFTER 12Z BUT CHANCE MAY BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR 2ND
PERIOD. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WILL BE ACROSS SERN OK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD NOT GET TO NW AR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE DECREASED FROM AFTERNOON LEVELS. MOST SVR STORMS AND TORNADO
THREAT MAY STAY WEST OF CWA ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOME THREAT IN SE OK AFTER 8PM. WITH TOR
WATCH IN EFFECT AND SPORADIC SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED IN CWA HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF SVR POSSIBLE IN ZFP.

AFTER FROPA...WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND DRIER IN THE MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOWER SO IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BEARABLE COMPARED WITH THE LAST
FEW DAYS. DRY AIR WILL BE GONE AFTER TOMORROW AS SLY SFC FLOW RETURN
SO ENJOY FRIDAY WHILE IT LASTS.

LOOKED AT MODELS AGAIN FOR LATER PERIODS AND APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THUS ANY
STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. SLY FLOW WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. STORMS SHOULD STAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT EVEN WITH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FCSTID = 26
TUL   64  89  63  91 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   65  88  62  92 /  80  10   0   0
MLC   65  88  63  92 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   60  86  61  89 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   61  83  57  87 /  80  10   0   0
BYV   61  83  56  87 /  80  10   0   0
MIO   62  86  63  88 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   64  88  66  91 /  60   0   0   0
F10   64  88  66  91 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   68  88  63  91 /  70  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR ALL ZONES.
OK...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR ALL ZONES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    PAWHUSKA                  OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/14/01   OSAGE                           EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                           REPORT. 60 MPH WIND
                                           GUSTS WITH TREE DAMAGE.

DRM

OKZ054>056-059-142200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 425 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PAWNEE...OSAGE...
WASHINGTON AND NOW<ATA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED EAST OF THESE
LOCATIONS...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0409 PM    DRUMRIGHT                 OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   CREEK                           SPOTTER REPORT OF WATER
                                           OVER ROADWAYS.

0409 PM    5 W SKIATOOK              OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   OSAGE                           SPOTTER REPORT OF WATER
                                           OVER ROADWAYS.

0415 PM    HOMINY                    OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   OSAGE                           LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT
                                           OF FLOODING.

0425 PM    BARTLESVILLE              OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   WASHINGTON                      LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT

0437 PM    OWASSO                    OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   TULSA                           SPOTTER REPORT OF
                                           STREETS FLOODED.

0440 PM    LENAPAH                   OK    FLOOD
06/14/01   NOWATA                          COOPERATIVE OBSERVER
                                           REPO&RT OF STREET
                                           FLOODING.

OKZ057-058-060>062-064>067-150015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 425 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

CREEK...OKFUSKEE...TULSA...OKMULGEE...ROGERS...WAGONER...CRAIG...
MAYES...AND OTTAWA.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
=ACROSS THE AREA.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 425 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
700 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

...UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS...

...FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

EARLY THIS EVENING...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
BARTLESVILLE TO SHAMROCK...AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WAS
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAY IN
DELAWARE COUNTY...TO HANNA IN MCINTOSH COUNTY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REMAIN NECESSARY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A JAY TO HANNA OKLAHOMA LINE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
MAY NOT MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. LIFTED INDEX VALUES
RANGED FROM -9 TO -11 CELSIUS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY

THREAT AREA 1...SOUTHEAST OF A JAY TO HANNA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

SJT