Hail in Arkansas, April 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

SATELLITE/RADAR LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS SYSTEM ALOFT IN
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH WARM FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO STATE...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. AS FAR AS
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING/BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND FRONT. KEPT CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH MOST
OF THE DAY.

THROUGH SUNDAY...ATMOSPHERE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

COLD FRONT TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING/COOLER WEATHER. DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS WELL.

MUCH STRONGER FRONT/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARKANSAS
FROM NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SOME CLOUDS/FEW SHOWERS ALONG
FRONT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A FREEZE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE CENTRAL/SOUTH.

WARMUP WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.   (46)

.LIT...NONE

ARZ003>005-012-013-021>023-030>032-037>045-052>057-062>069-151000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING.

AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NATURAL STATE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...CABLE TV AND RADIO
STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

45

ARZ040-041-052-053-150300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
435 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

...TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 10 PM...

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WERE MOVING TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE FRONT...
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL
10 PM. THE WATCH INCLUDES AREAS SOUTH OF MENA AND WEST OF
ARKADELPHIA AND MAGNOLIA.

IN THE WATCH AREA...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

REMEMBER...A WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING. BE READY TO FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...CABLE TV AND RADIO
STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

46