Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
this week with day to day variability in coverage and strength.
High temperatures will be 2-6 degrees above normal through the
middle of this week then warm to 7-12 degrees above normal late
this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cumulus and towering cumulus are beginning to form along the
terrain. Suitable moisture is in place with satellite derived
PWATs around 1.0 to 1.75 inches, higher values Sells westward.
High pressure overhead is centered over New Mexico and western
TX today leading to southeast flow in the mid levels helping to
pull moisture in from the Gulf of California. As surface heating
continues today and low level drying occurs, an inverted V
sounding will develop leading to DCAPE values around 1500 to
1700 J/kg. There will be a fair bit of mid-level shear as well,
25 to 35 kts, with decent updraft helicity thus there is the
potential for strong, longer- lived storms to develop. Storms
today will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Stronger storms more
likely be located along the Arizona/ Mexico international
border. CAMs continue to have storms beginning to develop
between 12 and 2 pm, initially on the higher terrain then moving
west to northwest.

Tomorrow, most of the ingredients seen today will be present.
Mid level shear will remain elevated at 25 to 35 kts, DCAPE of
1500-1800 J/kg, and PWATs between 1.0 to 1.6 inches. Storms
again will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Wednesday,
chances for storms and showers begin to diminish as the high
pressure center begins to move westward. By Thursday, high
temperatures will be 7 to 12 degrees above normal leading to
Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning
has been issued for most of southern Arizona (with the exception
of the higher terrain) from Thursday morning through Sunday
evening. At this level of HeatRisk, everyone should take proper
precautions to prepare for the heat as anyone is at risk for
heat related illnesses if not staying hydrated or cool. Friday
and Saturday look to be the hottest days in the forecast during
this stretch, with a 55% to 65% chance of 110 degrees for
locales Tucson westward both days. Chances for storms and
showers returns early next week as the center of high pressure
oscillates eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid though 30/00Z

FEW to SCT clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL KTUS eastward becoming SCT
to BKN 8-12k ft AGL aft 28/00Z. Isold to sct TSRA will be
possible south and east of KTUS starting around 27/20Z through
28/04Z. KDUG and KOLS terminals will be most at risk of being
impacted by TSRA. Any thunderstorm may produce wind gusts in
excess of 40 kts. Outside of storms surface winds variable less
than 8 kts this morning becoming NWLY 6-10 kts with occasional
gusts this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High temperatures will remain above normal this week. Expect
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
with day-to-day variability on coverage of storms. Any
thunderstorm will bring a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts
as well as brief heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of flash
flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent
in the lower deserts through at least mid-week. Winds this
weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday for
AZZ501>509.

&&

Malarkey

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     11 SSW Tucson           32.04N 110.95W
07/25/2026                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Delayed report. Covered patio roof and
            support structures destroyed.

&&

AJE