Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Tucson, AZ

643 
WGUS75 KTWC 280207
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
707 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

AZC019-280345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260728T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
707 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 707 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
between 1 and 3 inches of very heavy rain along and near both Highway
286 and Arivaca Roads in south central Pima county. Another area of
heavy rain has occured slightly north of Arivaca, impacting roadways
that intersect the Las Guijas and Arroyo Seco Washes. Flash flooding
is ongoing or expected to begin shortly, especially along roadway
dips and normally dry washes that drain into Las Guijas Wash, Arroyo
Seco Wash, Arivaca Creek and the Puertocito Wash...that all drain
eventually into Altar Wash.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Arivaca, Sasabe and Arivaca Lake.

This includes Route 286 between mile markers 1 and 32.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Arivaca Rd from Arivaca Junction & HWY 286.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 11118 3153 11118 3152 11137 3148 11150
      3152 11163 3183 11149 3186 11141 3190 11140
      3190 11138 3181 11139 3177 11137 3166 11124
      3170 11119

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CWR

186 
WGUS75 KTWC 280340
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
840 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

AZC019-280350-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260728T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
840 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

Additional rainfall overnight may result in additional flash flooding
concerns. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area until 5 AM
MST Tuesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 11118 3153 11118 3152 11137 3148 11150
      3152 11163 3183 11149 3186 11141 3190 11140
      3190 11138 3181 11139 3177 11137 3166 11124
      3170 11119

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
this week with day to day variability in coverage and strength.
High temperatures will be 2-6 degrees above normal through the
middle of this week then warm to 7-12 degrees above normal late
this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cumulus and towering cumulus are beginning to form along the
terrain. Suitable moisture is in place with satellite derived
PWATs around 1.0 to 1.75 inches, higher values Sells westward.
High pressure overhead is centered over New Mexico and western
TX today leading to southeast flow in the mid levels helping to
pull moisture in from the Gulf of California. As surface heating
continues today and low level drying occurs, an inverted V
sounding will develop leading to DCAPE values around 1500 to
1700 J/kg. There will be a fair bit of mid-level shear as well,
25 to 35 kts, with decent updraft helicity thus there is the
potential for strong, longer- lived storms to develop. Storms
today will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Stronger storms more
likely be located along the Arizona/ Mexico international
border. CAMs continue to have storms beginning to develop
between 12 and 2 pm, initially on the higher terrain then moving
west to northwest.

Tomorrow, most of the ingredients seen today will be present.
Mid level shear will remain elevated at 25 to 35 kts, DCAPE of
1500-1800 J/kg, and PWATs between 1.0 to 1.6 inches. Storms
again will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Wednesday,
chances for storms and showers begin to diminish as the high
pressure center begins to move westward. By Thursday, high
temperatures will be 7 to 12 degrees above normal leading to
Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning
has been issued for most of southern Arizona (with the exception
of the higher terrain) from Thursday morning through Sunday
evening. At this level of HeatRisk, everyone should take proper
precautions to prepare for the heat as anyone is at risk for
heat related illnesses if not staying hydrated or cool. Friday
and Saturday look to be the hottest days in the forecast during
this stretch, with a 55% to 65% chance of 110 degrees for
locales Tucson westward both days. Chances for storms and
showers returns early next week as the center of high pressure
oscillates eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid though 30/00Z

FEW to SCT clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL KTUS eastward becoming SCT
to BKN 8-12k ft AGL aft 28/00Z. Isold to sct TSRA will be
possible south and east of KTUS starting around 27/20Z through
28/04Z. KDUG and KOLS terminals will be most at risk of being
impacted by TSRA. Any thunderstorm may produce wind gusts in
excess of 40 kts. Outside of storms surface winds variable less
than 8 kts this morning becoming NWLY 6-10 kts with occasional
gusts this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High temperatures will remain above normal this week. Expect
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
with day-to-day variability on coverage of storms. Any
thunderstorm will bring a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts
as well as brief heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of flash
flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent
in the lower deserts through at least mid-week. Winds this
weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday for
AZZ501>509.

&&

Malarkey

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     11 SSW Tucson           32.04N 110.95W
07/25/2026                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Delayed report. Covered patio roof and
            support structures destroyed.

&&

AJE