Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 27, 2026Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 27, 2026, 11:02 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 106 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2026, 11:02 PM MST (06:02 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 2026, 12:48 AM MST
In force
106 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 368 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2026-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 00:00Z on 2026-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -6 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
4010 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

752 
WGUS55 KTWC 280602
FFWTWC
AZC023-280800-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0085.260728T0602Z-260728T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1102 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Santa Cruz County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 100 AM MST.

* At 1102 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rainfall rates across eastern Santa Cruz county. Between 0.75
  and 1.50 inches of rain have fallen with additional rainfall
  amounts up to an inch possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or
  expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Patagonia, Elgin, Canelo and Lochiel.

This includes the following highways...
Route 82 between mile markers 21 and 28. Route 83 between mile
markers 8 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 11046 3133 11047 3133 11074 3165 11074

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

CWR
1 follow-up statement
264 
WGUS75 KTWC 280748 RRA
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 AM MST Tue Jul 28 2026

AZC023-280758-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260728T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
1248 AM MST Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST for a portion of
Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 11046 3133 11047 3133 11074 3165 11074

$$

CWR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 27, 12:30 PM MST, 10 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 12:30 PM MST, 10 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
this week with day to day variability in coverage and strength.
High temperatures will be 2-6 degrees above normal through the
middle of this week then warm to 7-12 degrees above normal late
this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cumulus and towering cumulus are beginning to form along the
terrain. Suitable moisture is in place with satellite derived
PWATs around 1.0 to 1.75 inches, higher values Sells westward.
High pressure overhead is centered over New Mexico and western
TX today leading to southeast flow in the mid levels helping to
pull moisture in from the Gulf of California. As surface heating
continues today and low level drying occurs, an inverted V
sounding will develop leading to DCAPE values around 1500 to
1700 J/kg. There will be a fair bit of mid-level shear as well,
25 to 35 kts, with decent updraft helicity thus there is the
potential for strong, longer- lived storms to develop. Storms
today will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Stronger storms more
likely be located along the Arizona/ Mexico international
border. CAMs continue to have storms beginning to develop
between 12 and 2 pm, initially on the higher terrain then moving
west to northwest.

Tomorrow, most of the ingredients seen today will be present.
Mid level shear will remain elevated at 25 to 35 kts, DCAPE of
1500-1800 J/kg, and PWATs between 1.0 to 1.6 inches. Storms
again will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international
border and the the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Wednesday,
chances for storms and showers begin to diminish as the high
pressure center begins to move westward. By Thursday, high
temperatures will be 7 to 12 degrees above normal leading to
Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning
has been issued for most of southern Arizona (with the exception
of the higher terrain) from Thursday morning through Sunday
evening. At this level of HeatRisk, everyone should take proper
precautions to prepare for the heat as anyone is at risk for
heat related illnesses if not staying hydrated or cool. Friday
and Saturday look to be the hottest days in the forecast during
this stretch, with a 55% to 65% chance of 110 degrees for
locales Tucson westward both days. Chances for storms and
showers returns early next week as the center of high pressure
oscillates eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid though 30/00Z

FEW to SCT clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL KTUS eastward becoming SCT
to BKN 8-12k ft AGL aft 28/00Z. Isold to sct TSRA will be
possible south and east of KTUS starting around 27/20Z through
28/04Z. KDUG and KOLS terminals will be most at risk of being
impacted by TSRA. Any thunderstorm may produce wind gusts in
excess of 40 kts. Outside of storms surface winds variable less
than 8 kts this morning becoming NWLY 6-10 kts with occasional
gusts this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High temperatures will remain above normal this week. Expect
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
with day-to-day variability on coverage of storms. Any
thunderstorm will bring a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts
as well as brief heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of flash
flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent
in the lower deserts through at least mid-week. Winds this
weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday for
AZZ501>509.

&&

Malarkey

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:57 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
957 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Bisbee              31.44N 109.91W
07/27/2026  M61 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW7706 Bisbee.

&&

DVS
Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:05 PM MST, 57 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1005 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     Rain             3 N Bisbee              31.44N 109.92W
07/27/2026  M1.46 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Public

            Rain gauge measured 1.46 inches of rainfall
            in 30 minutes in Bisbee.

&&

DVS
Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:11 PM MST, 51 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1011 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     Rain             11 SE Sierra Vista      31.45N 110.18W
07/27/2026  M0.95 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported 0.95 inches of rain in 20
            minutes.

&&

AH
Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:15 PM MST, 47 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1015 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     Rain             4 NNW Bisbee            31.46N 109.94W
07/27/2026  M1.18 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station BTAA3 Bisbee Tunnel.

&&

DVS
Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:34 PM MST, 28 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1034 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     Rain             12 SE Sierra Vista      31.44N 110.18W
07/27/2026  M3.00 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter reported 3 inches over the
            past hour ending at 1030 PM MST.

&&

DVS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 6:09 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima3 hr
Jul 27, 6:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima51 min
Jul 27, 6:40 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima2 hr
Jul 27, 8:39 PM MSTFlood WatchTWCCochise, Graham, Pima, Santa Cruz8 hr
Jul 27, 9:33 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise42 min
Jul 27, 9:57 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatTWCCochise3 hr
Jul 27, 10:11 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise49 min
Jul 27, 10:31 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatTWCCochise2 hr
Jul 27, 11:33 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCSanta Cruz42 min
Jul 28, 12:59 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGraham46 min
Jul 28, 1:26 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise49 min
Jul 28, 2:18 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima42 min
Jul 28, 7:54 AM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCCochise3 hr
Jul 28, 11:22 AM MSTAreal Flood WarningTWCCochise6 hr
Jul 28, 1:33 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGreenlee42 min
Jul 28, 2:10 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCGreenlee3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2026Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.