Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across southeast Arizona with an increased risk of
flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust will also be
possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for thunderstorms will
continue through the coming week with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...My concern when hoisting a flash flood watch 24
hours in advance during the monsoon is what happens the day
before and will there be considerable debris clouds starting the
morning to mess with the flash flood day forecast. Well that
happened this morning, an OH NO moment, with a considerable
cloud deck and very light showers/virga across the area. This
cloud deck has been slowly eroding this afternoon with storms
developing rather quick in the cloud breaks in a rather moist
and unstable atmosphere. The upper air pattern today is rather
chaotic today with upper low over wrn TX and an upper high
centered over NW AZ bringing a northerly diffluent flow aloft
across the area. In addition, there is an MCV west of Organ Pipe
Ntl Mon that is developing storms in western Pima county.

PWATs across the area ranged from 1.3" near AZ/NM border to
almost 2" over wrn AZ. The unstable atmosphere combined with the
above normal moisture will bring an increased flash flooding
threat to most of the area. Hourly rainfall rates from some of
the strongest storms could exceed 2"/hour so some of the flash
flooding could be considerable on a localized basis. Flash Flood
Watch continues for Graham/Cochise counties thru 9 pm, and for
Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties until 12 am Friday. The
threat for severe storms is limited with isolated gusts up to 55
mph possible.

Activity diminishing overnight with likely considerable cloud
cover around Friday morning. Likely to have another slow start
to the convection, with CAMs hitting the Intl border with heavy
rain.

Thunderstorm chances continue daily this weekend and into next
week with day to day variability. Ensemble models show the
upper level ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four
Corners region next week keeping an active monsoon pattern
across the area.

High temperatures over the next 7 days will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z
Showers and thunderstorms will continue 17/07Z before slowly
diminishing thru 17/13z. Heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and
erratic strong wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible with any storm,
with ceilings mainly 9k-12k feet. Outside of thunderstorms,
surface winds generally under 10 kts. Chance of -SHRA/TS
developing aft 17/19z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the
lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains
this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15
mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains through tonight may lead to significant rises in
washes, creeks and rivers, especially from western Cochise
county west through Santa Cruz and into central Pima county.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
 Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>506-514-515.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
505 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Flash Flood      42 ESE Willcox          31.94N 109.22W
07/16/2026                   Cochise            AZ   CO-OP Observer

            South Turkey Creek Rd and Paradise-Portal Rd
            is Flooding. South Turkey Creek is bank to
            bank with 3 feet of water in it and flooding
            most of Turkey Creek Rd. Forest 42B Rd and
            Portal Paradise Rd has flash flooding along
            the road.

&&

CLP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
614 PM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Three Points      32.10N 111.27W
07/16/2026                   Pima               AZ   911 Call Center

            Highway 86 impassible due to flooded
            roadway.

&&

JVT